Bills vs. Dolphins Pick – Week 11 Analysis

by | Nov 12, 2019 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS)

When: Sunday, November 17th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL


Point Spread: BUF -6.5 / MIA +6.5 ( - One of player’s favorite books!)

Total: 40

Power Ratings: Miami +4

Takeaways From Week Ten

Buffalo comes into this contest off a 19-16 loss on the road in Cleveland against the Browns last Sunday. The market saw the Bills close as a three-point underdog and thus produced a push for those that backed either side at the closing price. The Bills are 1-2-1 ATS in their previous four contests.

The Dolphins come into this contest off their second straight win, this time where Miami was priced as an incredulous 11-point favorite. Against the Indianapolis Colts on the road, the Dolphins managed to stage a remarkable 16-12 shocker over Indy. As a result, Miami has now won and covered in two consecutive matches and are 5-0 ATS in their last five outings.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo-Miami Game

53% of the public consensus is on the Bills here as the favorite. However, we have seen a one-point line movement downward in some markets where the Bills are now spotting less than a converted touchdown in contrast from opening as a 7.5-point favorite. This is a significant advantage for Bills bettors as a converted touchdown now gets us to the window.

The Historical

The Bills and Dolphins last met on October 20th in Buff City that saw the Bills close as a 17-point favorite. Buffalo failed to green up when it defeated the Dolphins 31-21. The Bills have now won four of the last five meetings between these two AFC East rivals.

Betting Trends

In the build-up to the last meeting between Miami and Buffalo, the favorite has covered in four consecutive meetings. Miami snapped that streak with their ATS win at Buffalo on October 20th. The Over is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests between these two sides.

Injury Concerns

There are no emergent injuries to key personnel on either the Dolphins or Bills roster heading into this divisional bout.

Why We Like The Bills To Cover

In the last meeting between both sides, the Bills were in a position to be overvalued by virtue of the fact their opponent was yet to win a game and only covered once on the season. Contrarily, Buffalo was a broken slot machine as they had failed to cover only once on the year and were riding an overall hot streak dating back to the pre-season. As a result, we saw the Bills spotting an insanely ludicrous number to the Dolphins, who simply took advantage of the overlay. However, now the opposite is the case. Miami has been covering at will, and they have been catalyzing revenue on the Money Line while they have been at it. Buffalo meanwhile lost last week on the road to a team with a losing record. As highlighted previously, the Bills opened in some markets at a notorious favorite-friendly number, which is designed to attract action on Miami with the guise of a cover even if they lose by a touchdown. This is where we step in and take advantage as some heavy action has positioned to us to profit now should the Bills win by said converted touchdown. This is no reason to suspect that Buffalo cannot do so, given they beat this very team by double-digits just weeks ago.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Buffalo Bills -6.5

Buffalo will come out and punch Miami square in the jaw early to quickly diminish the motivation of the underdog and to eliminate any prospect of an upset. In the opening stages of the regular season, much of the league may have been guilty of taking the Dolphins lightly. After all, Miami was compared to a pee-wee team in some regards and was seen priced at all sorts of crazy numbers as a heavy underdog. However, the market will catch up to Miami, and the Bills are certainly adept at what they are capable of. Buffalo’s ferocious third-ranked defense in terms of total yardage (304.2 yards per game) and scoring against (16.7 points per match) will grade the Dolphins into the road. The Bills offense will see an uptick in productivity against this 31st-ranked Dolphins scoring defense (29.8 points per contest). The resultant of the two will see Buffalo win this match-up again and do so by multiple scores. Ad: Make the Bills a +7.5 underdog by inserting them into a 14 point teaser at BetAnySports!