Browns vs. Bengals Prediction ATS 11/7/21

by | Nov 2, 2021 | nfl

Cleveland Browns (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)

NFL Football Week 9

Date/Time: Sunday November 7th, 2021. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Paul Brown Stadium Cincinnati, OH

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CLE +3/CIN -3 (Bovada - Most bookies only offer live betting during commercials. Bovada offers live betting during the WHOLE GAME! + 50% bonus! Check it out!)

Total: 47

The Cincinnati Bengals suffered a relatively shocking defeat to the previously 1-5 SU New York Jets last week. Despite another solid performance from QB Joe Burrow, the Bengals defense folded against backup Jets QB Mike White, who threw for 405 yards with three touchdowns in the 34-31 defeat. Going into the Week 8 match-up against the Jets, the Bengals were tied with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North and are now surprisingly in a division battle that is separated by just two games. On Sunday, the Bengals look to bounce back when they host a pivotal division match-up against the Cleveland Browns at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Browns dropped their 3rd game in the last four weeks in last Sunday’s 15-10 loss to Pittsburgh. After being decimated with injuries over the last few weeks, the Browns got back QB Baker Mayfield and RB Nick Chubb in last week’s loss. Mayfield has been playing through a shoulder injury, and while his stats do not reflect any horrific storyline, Mayfield has lost his last three starts and struggled to connect on passes down the field. Meanwhile, the only part of the offense that has remained consistent is the ground game. D’Ernest Johnson stepped up in a big way in the Thursday Night showdown against the Broncos two weeks ago with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt sidelined. Chubb was able to return last week for a 16-61 stat line while Johnson stepped into the secondary role with a 4-22-1 stat line. While the run game continues to provide the biggest reliability for Cleveland, the offense has been held to 17 points or less in the last three games, which is especially worrisome against a talented Bengals offense.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends

  • The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five games on the road
  • The Browns are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games against AFC opponents
  • The Browns have hit the “under” in 4 of the last six games
  • The Bengals have hit the “under” in 5 of the last seven games
  • The Bengals are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite
  • The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games against the Browns
  • The Bengals and Browns have hit the “over” in 6 of the last seven meetings

More Picks: Get Jay’s Broncos at Cowboys Week 9 Over/Under Play

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Analysis

The Bengals defense was shredded last week for over 400 yards through the air. Not only did nobody see it coming, but it happened in the most unlikely circumstances against an unknown backup QB in Mike White for the New York Jets. In hindsight, perhaps it should not have been too surprising, considering the Bengals have struggled like crazy in the secondary. While I give much credit to White’s performance for New York, I am not convinced the Browns can replicate the same success. Baker Mayfield has just not looked good recently, especially with the mid-range to deep ball throws, which is needed to exploit the Bengals secondary.

Purely from a match-up perspective, this is a spot for Cincinnati to thrive. The Bengals defense ranks 6th against the run allowing just 94 yards per game on the ground. Nick Chubb should be healthier this week, but the Browns are still missing their pace-changing back in Kareem Hunt. Therefore, I believe this is a conquerable match-up for Cincinnati’s defense as long as they avoid a 2nd straight disastrous performance which I would be willing to bet against with all of the scrutiny this week. As a result, we should get a fired-up Bengals defense against a relatively one-dimensional rushing attack which plays into the Bengals defensive strength.

Personally, I believe the Bengals defense is the biggest fear of the betting public in this game, but I believe it is a great match-up in this rebound spot. On the other side of the field, QB Joe Burrow will get to take aim at a questionable Cleveland defense. On paper, the Browns have been solid, but they have had some really poor performances as well, especially on the road. With the Bengals offense in full breakout mode with rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and RB Joe Mixon, this offense is equipped with all of the tools to keep Cleveland on their heels. As a result, I like the home team who appears to own the edge on each side of the football.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread : Cincinnati -3. Bet your Week 9 NFL football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must sign up through this special link AND use bonus code PREDICT100 to receive the special bonus!)