Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Friday, August 14, 2026
7:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium
This game has completely reshaped itself in the last 48 hours, and the market is still catching up. That creates a spot for a spread play on the home team.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles confirmed this week that starting quarterback Baker Mayfield will not play in Friday’s preseason opener. That was the plan all along — Mayfield didn’t play a snap in the 2025 preseason either, so this isn’t a surprise. What is a surprise is what happened during Tuesday’s joint practice against the Jets. According to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, backup quarterback Jake Browning appeared to injure his back during the session. Bowles didn’t have an update, but Browning was slated to start Friday’s game against the Jets. If Browning can’t go, Tampa Bay is looking at reps being split between third-stringer Jalon Daniels and their other backup quarterbacks.
That’s a rough setup for a preseason offense against a team that’s about to be much more prepared to attack.
Because on the other sideline, Aaron Glenn is doing the opposite of what most head coaches do in a preseason opener. Following Tuesday’s joint practice, Glenn told reporters that he expects his first-team offense and defense to get some run on Friday night against the Buccaneers. That means Geno Smith, the Jets’ new starting quarterback acquired via trade from Las Vegas, is going to play. Garrett Wilson is going to play. The Jets defense — anchored by Sauce Gardner and now with veteran additions Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick — is going to play.
Glenn is in his second year with the Jets, and he took the same approach in his 2025 preseason opener with then-starter Justin Fields. His starters played meaningful snaps in the first two preseason games before he pulled them for the third and final exhibition. He’s been consistent about wanting starter reps in preseason, and now he’s got a fresh Geno Smith to work in.
So the setup is this. The Jets are playing their starters. The Bucs are missing their top two quarterbacks, potentially their entire competent QB depth, and running out roster-bubble arms. It’s a talent mismatch that gets even worse when you factor in that Glenn is defense-minded, his front seven is going to be flying around, and Tampa Bay’s backup QBs are going to be running for their lives.
This is why the line is shifting toward the Jets across the market. Some books haven’t fully adjusted yet, which means if you can grab Jets at +1.5 at a slower book, that’s a great number. If the number’s already moved and Jets are laying points at your book, they’re still the play because the QB matchup is that lopsided.
I looked at the total too. 36.5 was already one of the lower numbers on the Week 1 preseason board, and with Tampa Bay’s backup QBs running the show for three-plus quarters, the Under has real merit. But the side is where I see the more compelling play given the mismatched preparation and personnel.
The Pick: New York Jets (wherever the number is — Jets +1.5 if you can still get it, Jets ML if you can’t)
