Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick
Buffalo Bills (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
NFL Week 8
Date/Time: Sunday, October 21st, 2018 –1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
By: Keith Franks, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Buffalo +6.5 / Indianapolis -6.5
Over/Under Total: 42.5 (Bovada)
The Bills and Colts have met on four occasions in the last eight years. Over this sample, the boys from Buffalo have won three of those four meetings. Over this span the Bills are also 3-1 ATS. The most prevalent outing between the two was last year’s meeting in the city known for its chicken wings. In what was a thriller in the snow, Buffalo edged out Indianapolis 13-7 in one of the hallmark wins of Buffalo’s season powering the Bills always to the playoffs to end their postseason drought. However, Buffalo had the luxury of facing the Colts without Andrew Luck under center. This time around they won’t be so fortunate.
Bills Stumble In Houston
After staging another upset as a six-point underdog at home against the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago, the Bills returned to Earth yet again last week when they fell 20-13 at the Houston Texans. Though the Bills lost outright they managed to generate a cover against the spread as the Texans found themselves spotting a double-digit point total to the Bills. Buffalo was in position to actually pull yet another shocker as the game remain deadlocked at 13 until Texans cornerback Jonathan Joseph ran back an interception for a touchdown with just 1:28 remaining the game. After earning a hard-fought win against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football two weeks ago in overtime, Houston nearly stubbed its toe in a notorious let-down spot (winning on Monday Night combined with coming in off a hard-fought win). Though Buffalo lost the game, they nonetheless looked as formidable as ever.
Colts Lose Yet Again
The Colts enter this contest off their fourth straight loss. The latest result was attained in New York against the red-hot New York Jets. Indianapolis fell in The Big Apple by a score of 42-34. The final tally makes the game look far closer than how it was played. The Colts trailed by as much as 17 points in the second half and then the Jets seemed to shift into cruise control. As a whole, the Colts have not been competitive in a football game since their overtime loss to Houston three weeks ago. In between the Houston and New York game, the Colts lost as a 10.5-point underdog by a score of 38-24 in New England against Tom Brady and company on Thursday Night Football.
How The Public Is Betting This Game
We have seen no line movements take place but what is significant is the number presented on the board. 6.5 is an underdog-friendly number as it is designed to enchant takers to back the favorite. After all, a touchdown gets a win against the spread and that is the selling point. Generally speaking, the opposite is usually the case as this number is one often associated with many live dogs. Examples from the 2018 season, include the Giants two weeks ago who nearly upset Carolina at an identical figure and this very Colts team at Philadelphia in Week Three who also gave the Eagles a scare. In addition to this, Indianapolis requires extra juice at -6.5 with a price of -120 which is 10% more than the traditional vig. This in itself is a bad proposition from a long-term perspective which is always an ill-advised practice.
Take Buffalo +6.5
Outside of fading the hook that the market is using in this scenario, we have to like Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s prospects against this Colts defense. Against the Jets last week in New York, the Colts gave up 280 yards through the air to rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, allowing him to find the end zone twice and complete 80% of his passes. Allen has already been the architect upsets against the likes of the Minnesota Vikings earlier this season on the road and Tennessee at home two weeks ago. Teams known for better defenses than Indy. On that note, the Colts should provide plenty of opportunity for Allen to have a big day at the office as he has a rubric to study from Indianapolis’ performance last week against Gang Green.
On the flip side, the Colts are perhaps going against an even better defense than the Jets. Last week, Andrew Luck was picked off three times by New York. With that being said Luck did manage to throw for 301 yards against New York but in fairness they rank 22nd against the pass. Buffalo’s defense has produced far better numbers. Buffalo’s defense gives up a stingy 219 yards per game through the air (6th in the NFL) and allows only 311 yards of total offense per game (3rd in the league). Given the fact Luck is the centerpiece of Indianapolis’ offense, he is line for an even harder day at the office this time around. For this reason alone, Indianapolis should not be laying this kind of lumber with extra juice to boot. Take the points.