Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds and Pick to Cover the Point Spread

Buffalo Bills(0-6 SU,2-4 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2 SU,5-1 ATS), Week 8, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium, (Natural Grass) Kansas City Missouri, Sunday,October 31, 2010, 1:00 PM Eastern TV: CBS
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com

Betting Odds:Buff +7/KC-7
Over/Under Total: 43

It’s Trick or Treat when the Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead Stadium, looking to wintheir first game of the season against the playoff-boundKansas CityChiefs. This game will be regionallytelevised by CBS.

With two weeks to prepare, Buffalo looked impressive on offense and almost upset the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. The Bills lost 37-34 as 12.5-point road underdogs, but there is some good news as they may have finally found a quarterback that can manage an offense with precession. Buffalo won the stats for the first time this season, 506-to-374.RyanFitzpatrick went 29 for 43 for 373 yards and four touchdowns. LeeEvans had six receptions for 105 yards with three touchdownsand Steve Johnson had a career-high 158 receiving yardsand one score. The four TD passes were the most against the Ravens since Peyton Manning did it for Indianapolis backin December of2007.

Last Sunday, the Chiefs got back on the winning track in very impressive fashion. They destroyed the Jaguars 42-20 as 9-point home favorites. Jacksonville was coming off a short week having played on Monday Night Football and were completely out-playedin the second half. Kansas City racked up 426 yards of offense compared to300 by Jacksonville.
The Chiefs were able to turn all of their takeaways(two interceptions and a fumble recovery) into touchdowns, including Derrick Johnson’s nifty18-yardinterception return for a touchdown. Charlie Weis and RomeoCrennel have been the difference this season in KC.

Thomas Jones ran for 125 yards and Matt Cassel threw two touchdowns to Dwayne Bowe, who hasfour touchdown receptions in the last two weeks. What was really impressive was the the Chiefs’ run defense. Holding Maurice Jones-Drew to just 47 yards on 16 carries was the key to the game. KCdid not respect any play-action passes and were able to “stay at home” very effectively. The Chiefs 22-point win is their largest since a 41-0 win over the 49’s in Weekfour of the 2006 season.

The Bills offensive line will need to play their best game if they want any chance at the upset win. The Chiefs are so well coached and will certainly look for mismatches, pitting their front seven against the Bills’ shaky offensive line.

The Chiefs are averaging 25 points per game while the Bills are averaging 20. Kansas City hasmade thebiggest improvement on defense out of any team this season. They are allowing 18.7 points per game compared to a whopping 33 points per game for theBills. Buffalo is coming off a very physical game against the Ravens and will also be playing its second straight road game. Not a good combo.The Chiefs will be playing its second straight home game and will have the advantage of not having to travel leading up to this game.

Buffalodefeated Kansas City 54-31 on Nov. 23, 2008, taking advantage of five turnovers. The previous high for points scored against the Chiefs was 51 by Seattle on Nov. 27, 1983. Last season, Buffalo won again but the game was a lot closer. The Bills won 16-10 as 3-point road underdogs. I think the Chiefs remember that blowoutloss two years ago more than the 6-point setback last season. The Chiefs are much improved on both sides of the ball and they have one of the best Special Teams units in the NFL. I wonder how much Buffalo has leftin the tank after last week’s up-and-down thriller at Baltimore.

Buffalo is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City. Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo. I list key trends just for the readers but are rarely used in my handicapping process.

Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -7.

The Chiefs are in fight with the Raiders for the division lead. That sure sounds strange.With the Raiders on deck next week,that makes this game a must-win for the Chiefs. Look for Kansas City to avenge its two straight losses against the Bills by pulling away in the final quarter!