Buffalo Bills(3-4SU,5-2ATS) vs.New Orleans Saints(5-1SU,4-2ATS)
Date and Time:/October 27, 1:00 PM E
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:BUF +11/NO -11
The New Orleans Saints will look to bounce back from its first loss of the season, when they take on the Buffalo Bills in thisInterconference matchupat theSuperdome. Two weeks ago,New Orleans lost 30-27 as 3-point road dogs at New England in heartbreak fashion. The Saints wereoutgainedby 15 yards and sit at 4-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. Buffalo defeated Miami 23-21 last Sundayas 6-point road dogs, despite gettingoutgainedby 25 yards. The Bills are3-4 ITS this season.
Sean Payton and company will have twoWeeksto prepare for Thad Lewis as the Saints are coming off their BYE week. Lewis was pumped up for last week’s game against the team he rooted for as a youngster. TheOpa-lockaproduct will nowstart his very first game inside a dome. That will sure be a tough assignment considering theSaintsare ranked in the Top 10 inpointsallowed at just 17 per game. TheBills are a run-first team ranking 5thin the league. They will face a defense that is ranked 22ndagainst the run but the Saints should be improved coming off their BYE.The Saints know this and will force the young quarterback tobeat them. Look for the Saints defense to reallyfocus onstoppingSpiller (assuming he plays) and Jackson by using eight and even nine players in the box. Don’t forget,NFL teams returning from their BYE usually improve on run defense when playing at home.
There is a lot ofpositivesfor the host. New Orleans is 5-1SUand 4-2 ATS with Coach Payton back on the sidelines, and those records would be even better had they not blow the lead at NE two weeks ago. The Saints now come back angry and off their BYEWeek, plenty rested, ready to explode. The offense ranks sixth overall, DrewBreeshasaQBRover 100, Rob Ryan’s Defense ranks 11thand as a team they are plus-fivein turnoverdifferential. The Saints are 18-4 ATS in their past 22 as a home favorite.
Buffalo is in last place in the AFC East but they are far from out ofcontentionfor a playoff spot. The offense is averaging 22.7 points and 333 yards per game. They are also a plus-five in turnovers. Thad Lewis is completing 62.5 % of his passes with twotouchdownsand an interception. He has been sacked 9 times in two games and will playing in a very loud dome. Something he hasn’t had to deal with. The Bills offensive line has not been good in pass protection. If the Bills want to pull off the big upset, they will need to establish a ground game and limit the Saints offensivepossessions. Easier said than done. This will be a very tough venue for the second-year QBfrom Duke.
The Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games followingaSUwin. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last5 games following its BYE Week. These two teams have not played that much. Just six times since 1989. New Orleans is 4-2SUand 4-2 ATS including a 27-7 road win as 6-point chalk back in 2009. DrewBreesonly had 172 yards passing yards while Pierre Thomas had 14 carries for 126 yards and two scores. Look for DrewBreesto have at least double the passing yards and for the Saints running game to produce as well.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread:New Orleans Saints -11. The Saints have two weeks to prepare for a virtual rookie QB. New Orleans is 11-0 ATS at home, against AFC foes who wonSUas underdogs in their last game. Take the home team in this one.