Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Preview and Pick – Point Spread

Buffalo Bills (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS),
4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 18, 2009, Giants Stadium, East
Rutherford, N.J., TV: CBS

by Badger of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Bills +10/Jets -10
Over/Under: 38

The New York Jets will try and hold onto whatever glimmer of the
shooting star moniker they still have when they return home to Giants
Stadium in New Jersey to host their one-win AFC East rival Buffalo
Sunday afternoon on CBS.

The Jets surprise 3-0 start has now turned into a 3-2 start after
another disappointing performance in Mondays 31-27 loss at Miami.
Head coach Rex Ryan and his exciting blitz-heavy defense, the unit
largely responsible for the Jets fast start, took the blame after it
was gouged for 413 yards by the Dolphins and failed to register a
sack or a turnover in the last-minute loss.

But even with back-to-back losses, at least the Jets are not the Buffalo Bills right now.

The Bills are putting the fun in dysfunctional so far in 2009, struggling to a 1-4 start that was capped off Sunday by their worst performance of the season yet, a 6-3 loss at home to the Cleveland

The Bills have become a circus sideshow act since the day the signed
Terrell Owens, which included the firing of their offensive
coordinator a week before the season. Now the next axe to fall may
come down on head coach Dick Jauron if the Bills dont play inspired
football against the Jets on Sunday.

Oddsmakers opened the point spread in this game with the Jets as
double-digit 10-point favorites, and the number has since dropped to
9.5-point favorites at most of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web.

The over/under total for this game opened at 38 and has held for the most part during early wagering at the window. A few places have
lowered it down the hook to 37.5, but a large majority of sportsbooks
still list the total at 38 on their board.

Fans of offensive fireworks should probably find a different game to
watch on Sunday, because this game features one offense led by a
rookie quarterback and another one lost at sea with a first-time
coordinator (Alex Van Pelt) still getting his feet wet.

On paper, the Bills have no excuse in the world to be the 25th-ranked
unit overall (296.6 ypg). Not with Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson
taking carries from Trent Edwards, with a little of play-action to
Lee Evans or Owens mixed in on early downs. Simple, right?

The Bills are struggling to get Owens and Evans the ball in general
(179 ypg passing 25th), and its equal parts bad scheme and bad
quarterback play (Edwards 58 comp%., 5 TD-6 INT) to blame for the

The Jets are keeping things fairly easy for the rookie Mark Sanchez on offense, using a strong offensive line and running backs Thomas
and Leo Washington to run the ball early and often (132 ypg
7th). Sanchez has thrown five picks, and the passing game is still
early in its development (167.6 ypg 28th), so the Bills could force
the issue on defense and stack the line of scrimmage.

That is, if the Bills can find anyone left on the roster to play
defense. The Bills lost two linebackers, Kawika Mitchell and Marcus
Buggs, to season-ending injury last week. Thats on top of losing
their best corner (Leodis McKelvin), their top safety (Donte Whitner)
and starting middle linebacker (Paul Posluszny) to injury already.
Whitner is possible to return this week, but the unit is fix-a-flat
for the rest of the season for sure.

The Jets swept the season series last year, stealing a 26-17 victory on the road as 5-point underdogs, so the Jets will be looking to make it three in a row on Sunday. The Jets also won the game at home in
Giants Stadium last year, 31-27, but it was the Bills that covered
the point spread as 9-point underdogs.

The Bills had a three-game win streak prior to then, winning and covering three straight and running up a 7-3 ATS record in the last 10 games overall. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS in their last five visits
to New York.

There are a few long-term betting trends on this game that look
promising if you play the trend game. The underdog has enjoyed good
success in the past, going 19-7 ATS in the last 26 games.

The over is also a solid 6-2-1 in the last nine games overall in the

Badgers Pick: At some point the Bills will finally put things
together on offense, and you can bet that Jauron is going to use his
best Gipper speech to bring it out on Sunday. I like the Bills plus
the points here, but I think the best bet is the over in this game.
Im taking the over of 38 (or 37.5 if you can get it).