Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Pick 10/6/19

by | Oct 2, 2019 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN

Point Spread: BUF +3 / TEN -3
Total: 38.5

Power Ratings: Tennessee -9

Takeaways From Week Four

Though the Bills earned their first loss of the season, they looked impressive in Week Four when they ventured up to Foxboro to square off with divisional rival New England. Closing as a seven-point underdog, the Bills snuck in under the number and fell to the Pats by a margin of 16-10. The Bills trailed by as much as 13 before they rallied back to striking distance.

The Titans come into this game off a 24-10 win against the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday when they defeated the Dirty Birds in the ATL outright despite closing as a 3.5-point underdog. The victory snapped a two-game skid against the spread and straight-up for the Music City Miraclemakers.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo-Tennessee Game

54% of the consensus like the Bills here with the points but we have seen the line bounce back and forth between its opening price of Tennessee at -2.5 and its present position of a field goal being spotted to the visitors.

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The Historicals

The Bills won the last two meetings between both parties. The previous encounter between Buff City and Tennessee occurred in 2018 when the Bills edged out the Titans 13-12 to stage an upset as a six-point underdog.

Betting Trends

Several trends will undoubtedly direct the action toward the Bills here. To begin, Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in their previous ten outings overall. In addition, the Underdog has covered successfully in the last four meetings between both parties and the Road Team, in particular, is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven contests. All of these narratives will entice action onto the Bills and it seems the consensus is leaning slightly in that direction.

Injury Concerns

Bills Quarterback Josh Allen remains a question mark heading into this pivotal AFC clash. Allen is listed as day-to-day under concussion protocol. Should he be unavailable, Matt Barkley will be back in the fold as the signal-caller for the Bills. The Buffalo Quarterback went 9 for 16 with no touchdowns, one pick, and just 127 receiving yards when he stepped in for the injured Josh Allen.

Why We Like The Titans To Cover

All of the metrics would suggest that the Titans are the team to back here as Buffalo may likely be overvalued in this spot since they won and covered in the last two meetings in this series as an underdog. The Bills also looked rather impressive last Sunday when they gave New England a fight in Foxboro. Contrarily, Tennessee’s win at Atlanta though impressive to me will carry far less weight in this market. After all, Buffalo was undefeated heading into its bout with New England and played them tough. Tennessee remains the team that lost to Jacksonville and Indianapolis without their pre-season named starting quarterbacks. The win over Atlanta for Tennessee will not carry many verities as the Falcons in many regards have become subjected to a lot of scoffing by the general public.
Nevertheless, the real question for me is who has Buffalo beaten that is so great? The Jets who blew a 16-point lead? The Giants with an aging Eli Manning? Or the Cincinnati Bengals who didn’t have their best offensive weapon on the field in AJ Green? Lest we forget Cincinnati also could have beaten Buffalo in what was a narrow win for the Bills. Tennessee’s two victories this season were decisive and by an average of 22 points against the aforementioned Atlanta and the highly-touted Cleveland Browns who is a popular choice to go the post-season.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tennessee Titans -3

The Bills played their hearts last week and came up on the losing end of a bitter defeat. Buffalo is all the more prone to come into this contest flat while Tennessee, on the other hand, will be all the more motivated to bring their A-Game after losing its home opener. For the Titans, home-field advantage in Music City is something that this outfit relishes and something that it endeavors to protect. The Titans were 6-2 SU in Nashville last season and boded the same record in Nashville in the 2017-18 season, as well. I am hard-pressed to believe that the Titans are ready to drop their second straight on their own field and remain winless at home on the season to a Buffalo team that won just two games on the road, last season. Sure, Buffalo may have won at the Meadowlands against the Jets and Giants in back-to-back games, but the G-Men and Gang Green are nowhere near the quality to the Titans. After all, Tennessee was on the bubble for a playoff spot in 2018 while the Jets and Giants combined to win nine games which the Titans totaled in their previous campaign. A team like Buffalo, who has been hot against the spread is all the more prone to a market correction, and this spot proves to be an ideal scenario for such an event to unfold. I have Tennessee winning this one by double digits. Bet this game and ALL of your college and pro football games at discounted odds (You risk -105 instead of -110 this saves you HUGE money over the course of a season AND your betting life!) Find this smart money saving offer only at 5Dimes Sportsbook!