Former sportsbook manager RBD is fading Justin Herbert in Foxborough; our ATS pick examines if the Chargers’ decimated offensive line can survive the Patriots’ pass rush.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Play
Saturday, January 11th, 8 pm EST.
With nothing strong to choose from using my own handicapping systems, I’m going with a “gut feel” play again this week.
But unfortunately, I don’t have the Seahawks and their stifling defense to lean on.
With a limited number of games to choose from in the postseason, handicapping becomes more difficult for me.
Even the models that I used during the season to play ON or AGAINST have little value now, because the postseason is a whole different animal.
I looked over both college games and all six NFL games and I can easily make a case for either side in all 10 games.
Looking at the NFL schedule . . .
Sure, the Rams should win.
On paper it looks easy to choose the experienced LA team over the “haven’t-been-to-the-playoffs-in-almost-a-decade” Carolina Panthers.
Not to mention they’ve been playing over their heads and are due for a beating.
But I choose not to lay double digits to the home team in this spot.
I bought Chicago at home against Green Bay in their second meeting of the season, back on December 22nd.
They scored 10 points with under 2 minutes left.
Three weeks later I STILL don’t know how I got away with an OT win in that one.
So I don’t feel like pushing my luck on this coin toss of a playoff game.
Philly?
Who knows which Eagles team will show up, and if their offense will be able to score?
Jacksonville?
Sure, QB Lawrence is due for a meltdown, but do I trust this Jekyll and Hyde Buffalo team as a road Fav?
No I do not.
And I certainly don’t trust Harbaugh on the road.
I can still feel the pain of watching him and his Chargers lose to the New York Giants.
The 4-13 New York Giants.
And then there’s this — LAC comes into the postseason after losing two straight games at the end of the regular season.
A beating by Houston at home in LA.
And a road game at Denver.
Both games had playoff implications on the line.
And the Chargers failed miserably in both.
In fact, they never had a lead at any point in either game.
Let’s look at that again — THEY NEVER HAD A LEAD IN EITHER GAME.
Forget the rest of the games.
Look no more.
I think I just talked myself into a play on New England!
Let’s dig into the stats.
LAC is 11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS.
NE is 14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS.
On the road, LAC is 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS.
At home, NE is 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS.
All those numbers give the edge to the home team, New England.
And the thing about Herbert is he’s got a bit of Lamar in him.
He can get you most of the way there, but he can’t get you ALL the way.
He’s not a closer.
Playoff pressure is not a good environment for him.
Plus, to me, he always seems to have a dopey look on his face.
He doesn’t have that killer stare — that look of confidence and determination you see in closers, like Brady.
Let’s look at Herbert and the Chargers from a recent history perspective.
Do you remember the Wild Card game from last year?
Final score — Houston 32, Los Angeles 12.
Yeah, Harbaugh really had his players well prepared for that one.
The Chargers have lost two straight games.
The Patriots enter the postseason on a three-game winning streak.
Although, admittedly, you can’t really count the Jets and Dolphins.
I made some serious coin going against college teams that entered the Bowls after losing at least two straight games at the end of the regular season.
This weekend, I’m going to apply that theory to the NFL.
Last season, Pittsburgh entered the Wild Card round on a four-game losing streak.
Final score?
Baltimore 28, Pittsburgh 14.
Were there any teams going to the playoffs last season after losing two or more to end the regular season?
Yeah, Green Bay.
Final score?
Eagles 22, Packers 10.
Both teams lost by double digits.
Gimme the Patriots.
When Am I Buying This?
New England opened at -3′ and that’s where the line sits, pretty much across the board.
There’s no way I’m getting beat by the hook.
A few houses have extra juice on the Chargers.
So I’ll go to one of those to get a cheaper price on the Pats -3.
