Chicago Bears (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
NFL Week 7
Date and Time: Sunday, October 20th, 2013, 1:00 pm EST
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.
TV: FOX/DirecTV 707
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chi. +1/Wash. -1
Over/Under Total: 50
Two of the worst teams to wager on so far this season will clash head-to-head
on Sunday at FedEx Field when the 1-4-1 ATS Chicago Bears
take on the disappointing and 1-4 ATS Washington Redskins
in a battle shown early on Fox.
The Redskins have been a huge disappointment so far in 2013, and not just from a bettors perspective. With an extra bye week to prepare the Redskins still went down to Dallas last weekend and laid an egg falling, 31-16, in a game where they outgained the Cowboys 433-to-203. Two turnovers, three sacks and an 0-for-3 in the red zone is not going to get the job done at any level, but especially in an NFC East rivalry game.
The Bears meanwhile continue to pile up the wins to stay tied for the lead the NFC North, but theyre doing it thanks to a soft schedule, including last weeks 27-21 win over the hapless New York Giants on Thursday Night. The Bears four wins have come against teams with a combined 6-16 record, while their losses have come to teams with a 9-3 combined record, so its safe to say the betting public might still be a little gun shy on calling the Bears number at the window.
Except for this week when they meet the Redskins. With the Skins in a freefall, over 70 percent of the early money on this game has come in on the side of the Bears so far. This heavy-handed action towards the Bears has only caused a slight ripple on the board however, since the Redskins opened as slim 1.5-point favorites late on Sunday and its only dropped the hook to minus -1 at most of the sportsbooks on the Web
The over/under total has also seen a little bit of line movement early in the week, opening at 48 and rocketing up to 50 or 50.5 at most books.
The total may be climbing because the Redskins defense is one of the leagues worst and most disappointing units thus far (do you sense a theme here disappointing). Although they have improved in recent outings, holding Dallas to just 203 yards of total offense, the fact they are allowing over 28 points per game cannot be overlooked. With the Bears offense and quarterback Jay Cutler enjoying a renaissance under new coach Marc Trestman (over in 5 of 6 games, averaging 28.7 ppg 3rd in NFL), chances are Chicago should be able to move the ball and the chains come Sunday.
Chicagos defense is also struggling a little bit, depending on your perspective. Shutdown corner Charles Tillman has been MIA the past few weeks due to a nagging knee injury, and the linebacking crew is looking old (Lance Briggs) now that pickup D.J. Williams is done for the year after tearing his pectoral muscle in the Giants game last week. Robert Griffin III and the Redskins will still have to keep the mistakes to a minimum because the Bears defense is still one of the best in the NFL at taking turnovers to the house, but with a good game plan they should be able to stay in the game.
These two havent faced each other since 2010 (a 17-14 Redskins win in Chicago), but that was under Donovan McNabb and not RG3. For what its worth, the Bears are only 1-4 SU in their last five visits to Washington D.C., and 2-3 ATS in that same span. In fact, Washington holds a 8-2 ATS record against the Bears dating back to the 1991 season, so the fact that the only two Chicago covers came on the road could be significant.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Heavy money is on the Bears here, who have covered in the past in Washington. Still, one of these weeks the Redskins are going to explode and release a huge game and that should come this week at home. Take the Redskins minus the point at home.