Chicago at Cincinnati
NFL Free Pick
By RBD – Former Sportsbook Manager & NFL Betting Analyst
I have three different factors (trends, systems, methods, models, whatever you want to call them) that say take the Bears on Sunday.
Reason number one:
WF1 (one of my two handicapping methods for picking when the books have made the Wrong team the Fav) says the Bengals should be the Favorite in this game.
WF1 has a record of 3-6 on home teams like the Bengals this week.
That’s a 67% Fade.
Reason number two:
WF2 (my other method for picking Wrong Favs) says the Bengals should be the Favorite in this game.
Only three home teams have qualified for this play this season, and the record is 1-2.
A small data sample but a 67% Fade.
Reason number three:
There have been five games this season where both WF1 and WF2 had the same team qualify as a Wrong Favorite.
The record is 2-3, another stat favoring a Fade of the WF systems.
Aside from those three stats taken from my own unique handicapping models, there’s this general stat: the NFC is 27-19 ATS against the AFC this season.
Despite the AFC going 7-1 ATS against the NFC last week, the NFC still has the overall edge for 2025, a 58% winning edge.
And 58% is the cutoff I use to consider making a bet; anything lower than 58% gets tossed away, anything higher than 58% gets a second look.
A closer examination of the AFC vs NFC stat shows how quickly Reversion Towards the Mean can wipe out a winning trend.
Last week I broke down the NFC vs AFC record into four subcategories, looking for a higher winning percentage: Hm Favs, Hm Dogs, Rd Favs, Rd Dogs.
The overall record was 26-12 ATS.
Here was the breakdown:
HF 6-5
HD 3-2
RF 8-2
RD 9-3
All four subcategories were profitable.
One week later, here’s where the numbers are now:
HF 6-6
HD 3-3
RF 9-2
RD 9-8
Two of the plays (HF and HD) are losing money because of the vig.
The RD spot is barely above water with a profit of just .2 units.
Only Rd Favs remains profitable.
VERY profitable at 9-2, 81%.
(Do we have any of those NFC vs AFC Rd Favs this week? Let me go check, I’ll be back in a minute.)
Yup, we got one, JUST one – ‘Da Bears!
So I have three reasons for taking Chicago from my handicapping models for identifying Wrong Favs, and two reasons taken from standard stats (the NFC vs AFC overall ATS record of 27-19, as well as the subcategory when it’s an NFC Rd Fav, 9-2.)
I don’t have a crystal ball, I can’t predict who’s going to win, but I know it was an easy game to handicap and make a decision on.
But let’s go a little deeper.
Has Cincinnati been in either of the two WF spots before this week’s game?
Yup.
They qualified as a WF1 spot in weeks 3, 4, and 7. And their record is 1-2.
More fuel for the Chicago fire.
Want more?
In week five they qualified as a WF2 play.
They lost again.
So, for previous appearances in my Wrong Favorite spots they have a combined record of 1-3 ATS.
Need more?
I don’t.
But in case you do I’ll give you one more stat.
I gave you the records for both Wrong Fav spots, encompassing all teams, all conferences. And I gave you the standard stats for the AFC vs NFC.
Now let’s merge the stats from my models with the AFC vs NFC trend.
When the WF1 model has an AFC team as a Favorite over an NFC team the record is 3-8, a 72% Fade.
When the WF2 model has an AFC team as the Favorite over an NFC team the record is, after the Pittsburgh loss last week, 1-7.
An 87% Fade.
Side notes:
The Bengals have faced three NFC teams this season. They’re 0-3 SU.
They’re 1-2 ATS, their lone cover was when they were getting 15 from GB and lost by 9.
All three teams they faced were from the NFC North. They lost by 13 points to Detroit, 38 points to Minnesota, and 9 points to Green Bay, average margin of defeat 20 points.
On Sunday the Bears have a chance to make it a sweep for their division.
And they’re only laying three.
‘Nuff said.
My play:
Chicago -3
Recap:
2-0
Record:
5-3
Review:
I nailed the Eagles over the Giants in the morning and closed the day out with the Packers over the Steelers (using one of the same models I used for the Bears for this week’s pick.)
