Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 4, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium
Kansas City is a 4.5-point road favorite over Las Vegas with a total of 47.5. My play is the Raiders getting the points.
This is a battle of unbeatens, and only one of them has been covering. The Raiders are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread. They beat Miami 27-13 as home favorites in Week 1, went on the road and beat the Chargers 26-14 as underdogs in Week 2, and came back from an 11-point second-half deficit to beat the Saints 35-27 as road underdogs last week. Klint Kubiak’s first-year team has outplayed the market in every setup it has been in.
The Chiefs’ ATS profile tells the opposite story. Kansas City is 3-0 but just 3-7 against the spread over its last 10 games, and 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite in division games since 2021. The Chiefs keep winning, but they haven’t been winning by margins. They needed overtime to beat Indianapolis 33-30 in Week 2, and last week’s 24-10 win came against a winless Miami team that has scored three touchdowns all season.
Kirk Cousins is a big reason the Raiders are worth backing. He leads the NFL with nine touchdown passes, including three in the comeback win in New Orleans. He also just got Brock Bowers back from a knee injury, and Bowers made an immediate impact in his season debut with 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. Add Ashton Jeanty in the backfield and the Raiders have a balanced offense that is averaging 29.3 points per game. Kansas City’s defense ranks just 19th in pressure rate, so Cousins should have time to work.
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Las Vegas can also defend. The Raiders rank second in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and are allowing 18.0 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is back to full strength after last season’s knee surgery and has the Chiefs at 3-0, but this is the best defense he has seen since the opener. With both teams leaning on the run (Kansas City added Kenneth Walker III this offseason), this sets up as a lower-possession game, and fewer possessions make 4.5 points more valuable.
The Chiefs’ defense is legitimate too. Kansas City ranks third in yards per play allowed and is giving up just 16.7 points per game. That’s the main risk to this pick. But a defense-first Chiefs team in a grinding divisional game is far more likely to win by a field goal than by a touchdown or more.
The Raiders did win the last meeting, 14-12 in Las Vegas in the 2025 season finale, but that game doesn’t tell us much. Mahomes was out, Kansas City played Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele at quarterback, and the Raiders had neither Cousins nor Kubiak. This is a different matchup, and it’s better for the home team than it looks.
Realistic outcomes: Chiefs 24, Raiders 21 (3-point margin, Raiders cover +4.5); Chiefs 27, Raiders 24 (3-point margin, covers); Raiders 21, Chiefs 17 (Raiders win outright); or Chiefs 30, Raiders 20 (10-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Las Vegas.
The Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
Back the unbeaten Raiders as home underdogs, and put some extra money in your bankroll before kickoff. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Las Vegas +4.5 and the rest of your Week 4 NFL picks.
