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Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pick.
Cincinnati Bengals(2-3 SU,2-3 ATS)atAtlanta Falcons(4-2 SU,3-3 ATS), Week7 NFL, Georgia Dome(Field Turf),Atlanta Georgia, SundayOctober 24, 2010, 1:00 PM Eastern, TV: FOX
Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds:Cin +3.5/Atl -3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons will look to get back on the winning track in this NFLInterconference matchup at the Georgia Dome this Sunday.
It has been two weeks since the Bengals last played and theywill be looking to snap its two game losing skid. On October 10, they were upset at home 24-21 as 6-point favorites against the Bucs. Prior to that it was a 23-20 defeat as 3-point road favorites against division rival Cleveland. The Bengals are 4-2 ITS (in the stats) this season, and with any luck they could easily be a winning team. They have committed more turnovers in the red zone than any other team in the AFC North. While a lot of experts tabbed the Bengals as division winners before the season started, they simplyhave not been able to find any rhythm on offense.
The Atlanta Falcons playedits worst game of the season last week. TheEagles won 31-17 as 2-point home favorites, and thoroughly dominated the game from beginning to end. Atlanta has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but last week’s performancewas not what Falcons’ fanswere looking for. The Falcons’ pass defense allowed Kevin Kolb to pass for 326 yards and three scores. Atlanta was out-gained 472-to-293, which is the most yards allowed by the Falcons this season.
When I watch film of these two teams it’s veryevident that both teams would rather run the ball than pass. However, both teamshave been more successful when they look to pass the ball early and often. The NFL is more of a passing league than ever before. With all the pass interference penalties that are being called most teams are taking numerous chances throwing the ball down-field.
I see a lot of similarities from both teams interms of philosophy and scheme. They are also very similar in the stats department.The Falcons are averaging 357 yards per game and are allowing 337 yards per game. On the flip side, the Bengals are putting up 351 yards per game and are allowing 317. The one area that Atlanta has excelled in is Red zone defense, were they are ranked No.6 compared tothe Bengals at No.16.
The Falcons’ defense was shown up by Kevin Kolb and the Philadelphia Eagles receivers, and they will be looking to make a statement against the Bengals’highly regarded receivers. Carson Palmer has thrown for over three hundred yards twice this season, but he andthe Bengals’offensive production have been well below preseasonexpectations. Chad Ocho Cinco and T.O.have both had big days but have yet to put together consistent efforts as a team.
Matt Ryan is coming off one of his worst games in his career completing just 23-of-42 passes. He did throw for 250 yards, but most of those came in thesecond half when the game was already decided.Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez should have big days as the Bengals’ defensehas struggleddefending speedy tall receivers and elitetight-ends.
Both teams will be looking to start fast in this game. The Falcons are 13-3 under head coach Mike Smithwhen leading after the first quarter. On the flip side, the Bengals are 3-12 since 2008 when they trail after one quarter. Even good teams lose road games, sodo not overreact followingAtlanta’srough game at Philadelphia.
The last regular seasonmeeting between these two teams was back 2007. The Falcons won 29-27, as 3.5-point road underdogs.The Over is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
If Special Teams is important toyou than you will want no part of the Bengals. They have two weeks to work on their No.16 ranking, which should help. The Falcons have the fifth best Special Teams units in the NFL. Before last week’s loss the Falcons were ranked No. 3.Keep an eye on that when you watch this game.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games. Atlanta is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home.
Jeff’s Pickto Cover the PointSpread:Atlanta Falcons -3.5 & Over 42.5.
When you see ahome favorite in the NFL at -3.5, the favoritewill have a very good chance at winning and covering. The Total has gone over in six of the seven meetings between these two teams. Perfect weather conditions playing indoors. The Falcons are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Rest equals rust for Cincinnati.The Bengals are just 5-13 SU when playing with two weeks of rest. Take the better team returning home off an ugly loss, and Over the total as well!