Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick ATS

by | Sep 17, 2019 | nfl

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
When: Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY

Point Spread: CIN +6 / BUF -6
Total: 43.5

Power Ratings: Buffalo -7

Takeaways From Week Two

After looking far more impressive on the road in Week One against Seattle, the Bengals did not look up-to-speed in their follow up when they hosted the 49ers at home in Week Two. Closing as a one-point favorite and near-unanimous selection by many NFL experts in outright picks, the Bengals were routed by a score of 41-17 by Jimmy G and company. The Bengals have dropped their last four matches dating back to the pre-season.

On the flip-side, the Bills looked impressive in Week Two in their second straight road game at MetLife Stadium. After a thrilling come-from-behind win against the New York Jets in Week One, the Bills were dominant in Week Two against the Jets’ roommate the Giants. Closing as a one-point favorite as well, Buffalo went on to win the game 28-14 as easy money for takers.

How the Public is Betting the Cincinnati- Buffalo Game

67% of the consensus like the Bills here and as a result, we have seen this line move upward by two points from the opening figure of Buffalo spotting four points to the guest.

The Historicals

The Bengals own the most recent win in this series and have won four of the last five collisions between these two sides. The previous encounter between Buff City and Cincy was in 2017 when the Bengals hosted the Bills and defeated them 20-16 to produce a narrow cover as a three-point favorite.

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Betting Trends

Two narratives have emerged regarding betting trends in this series. First, the Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the previous eight meetings between both sides. For Totals players, the Over is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests.

Injury Concerns

The most prominent injury concern is the Bengals being without All-Pro and former Georgia Bulldog Wide Receiver AJ Green. Green tore a ligament in his ankle in training camp and is not expected back until late September. For the Bills, rookie Running Back Devin Singletary is battling a day-to-day injury which makes his status questionable for this match-up. Should the emerging talent be unavailable, veteran rusher Frank Gore will see an uptick in his workload. Up until now, Gore and Singletary have split carries to spearhead the ninth-ranked rushing attack (139.5 rushing yards per game) in the NFL.

Why We Like The Bengals To Cover

Some other betting sites will suggest that the Bills are in fact still undervalued here in this spot and should be favored by a full touchdown plus PAT. I am not one of those people. There isn’t a team that could be hotter in the NFL right now than the Buffalo Bills. Buff City’s performance portfolio to date has been one that many analysts have salivated at. The discussion is the continued progression of Quarterback Josh Allen complemented by a Buffalo defense that is simply exquisite. Adding in the fact that the Bills have won eight in a row dating back to last season and have been a cover machine while doing so (8-0 ATS over this run), the Bills are prone to being overvalued in this spot, especially against a team like Cincinnati who has gone 2-8 SU in their previous ten fixtures and 2-4 ATS in their last six matches.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals +6

The Bills won’t be able to snack on a quarterback who is still undergoing a learning curve or a signal-caller that is about to ready to sign his swan song in this endeavor. No, Buffalo is going to have to deal with Sir Andy Dalton who presently has powered the Bengals to harness the second-best passing attack in the NFL (343 yards per game). Though AJ Green is missing, the cupboard is not bare. The Bengals have another 1,000-yard receiver at their disposal in Tyler Boyd and “Mean” John Ross has emerged as a potent deep threat who has already found the end zone three times this season. In addition, Cincy always has an economical dual-purpose running back in Gio Bernard coming out of the back-field to test this Bills defense underneath. This is a multi-faceted offense that is not one-dimensional like the Bills have seen in the previous two weeks with the Jets and Giants boding a big-name rusher and not much else after that. I expect Cincy’s offense to be a much bigger challenge for Buffalo to tackle and given how we are unable to truly gauge Buff City’s offensive consistency with respect to last year’s toils, this is quite a lofty number to lay here. The Buffalo defense will need to put together another stellar performance, or they may be upset in their own yard. Be that as it may, I’ll play this one conservative and take the points.

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