Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills(2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
Date and Time: Sunday, October 13, 1:00p,
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, New York
TV: CBS
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: CIN -7/BUF +7
Over/Under Total: 42
This Sunday, we have an AFC battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills. Cincinnati comes in at 3-2, while the Buffalo Bills sit at 2-3 overall. The Benglas are many experts favorite to make the playoffs, while the Bills do not have much support due to their lack of success in recent years. Many would think that the Bengals would have the edge in recent history, simply because they had some decent runs, even in the early 2000s during the Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson era, but truth be told, the Bills have more success in this matchup. The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings dating back to 1991. Not only have they covered the spread in 80% of the recent matchups, but they have a head to head advantage of 9-1, that’s right 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Of course since the series last ten games are dating all the way back to the early 90s, you cannot simply base the prediction of this game on that stat, but it is certainly something you want to keep in mind. The line is Cincinnati -7 right now as a road favorite which seems a little high, but lets take a closer look.
The Buffalo Bills came into this season with many question marks. With the exception of stud running back, CJ Spiller, many people didn’t know what to expect from the Bills offense. So far this season, it has played out just like many experts speculated…a great running team, with a questionable passing game. The Bills are ranked 3rd in all of the NFL with over 150 yards rushing on the season, but sit in the bottom half of the league in passing, throwing for just over 190 yards a contest. All season long, Buffalo has been competitive. Even though they are one game under .500, every contest has come down to the very end. They lost to the Patriots on a last second field goal, beat the defending Super Bowl champ Ravens by a single field goal, and battled back and forth with the Browns just this past Thursday night. Like stated earlier, the Bills are home underdogs by 7 points. I am not sure how this line is so big seeing as how the Bengals aren’t world beaters themselves but there must be a reason, right? If Buffalo is going to win this game, as well as cover this spread, their goal is simple….defense. If Buffalo can keep this game low scoring, I feel they can win this thing. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been exactly lights out, but I have zero faith in Andy Dalton for the Bengals. I believe the Bills could get enough pressure on him to cause a few turnovers, which could change the outcome of this contest.
The Bengals are big road faves in this game. All preseason, many experts were high on this team. They have a good defense, a stud wide receiver, and a group of talented running backs. As we speak, they are 3-2 and have some big wins already over the Packers, Patriots, and Steelers. Well, that Steelers win doesn’t look too good now, but at least they got the W. I like Cincy, a lot. My only reservation with them is the fact that I do not trust Andy Dalton. Yea he can make the routine throws, and when he isn’t pressured, he can look pretty good. However, when the opponent pressures him, or makes him look to a wide out other than AJ Green, he gets a little shaky. Dalton is completing over 60% of his passes, but his TD to INT ration is terrible. Coming into week six, he only has five TD passes, and the same number of picks. This is not going to win any big games down the stretch for the Bengals. In order to win this game and cover the spread, Cincinnati needs to put up points. If the Bengals can score between 24-30 points, I don’t see Buffalo keeping pace. However, if Dalton cannot make the tough throws and gives the Bills good field position due to picks and bad play, this game could end up being much closer than anticipated.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: It would be one thing if the road favorite in this game was a top caliber NFL team like the Saints, Patriots, or Seahawks. But the Bengals? Don’t get me wrong, I already said I like them, but to travel on the road and play a team that is only one game worse than you in the standings, and you get spotted a whole TD is just insane. This pick is very easy for me. I like the Bills all day. Not only do I think the Bills cover this spread, I think they can win this game too. Remember, based on history, the Bills have owned this series, and this Sunday, that will not change. Take the Bills in a low scoring battle. Buffalo wins 21-16 PICK: BUFFALO +7
