Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday, August 15, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Lumen Field
The Saturday night preseason nightcap is one of the better spread plays on the entire Week 1 board, and the value is on the home team laying the number.
The Seahawks are at home as 2.5-point favorites with a total sitting around 38.5. That line has been remarkably stable since it opened, which is unusual for a preseason game. When a preseason spread doesn’t move, it typically means both sides are seeing the same fair number — and both sides are agreeing that Seattle is the better team in this specific spot. Once you dig into the details, it’s easy to see why.
Let’s start with what matters most in preseason football: which team has the better backup quarterback situation.
Sam Darnold is the Seahawks’ starting quarterback and will play limited snaps if any. Behind him, Mike Macdonald has Drew Lock — a veteran with actual NFL starting experience across stints in Denver, Seattle, and the New York Giants — and Jalen Milroe, a young quarterback with dynamic rushing ability who’s been getting reps throughout training camp. That’s a legitimate one-two backup punch that can move an offense in the second half of a preseason game.
The Cowboys’ situation is completely different. Dak Prescott is the QB1 but head coach Brian Schottenheimer has already confirmed most of his starters will see “little to no action” across all three preseason games. That leaves the offense in the hands of Sam Howell and Joe Milton III, who are competing for the backup job. Schottenheimer himself called the competition “back and forth” earlier this week, which tells you neither guy has separated. Two unproven quarterbacks splitting reps against a Super Bowl-winning defense in Seattle is exactly the kind of matchup that leads to punts, sacks, and short fields for the home team.
Speaking of that Super Bowl-winning defense — this matters more than the market seems to be pricing.
Mike Macdonald is entering year three as the Seahawks head coach coming off Super Bowl LX, where Seattle beat the New England Patriots 29-13. His defense was the foundation of that championship team, and it’s still largely intact. Even with starters sitting and second-string units doing the work, this is a franchise that runs its defense with discipline and pressure concepts that overwhelm unprepared backup quarterbacks. Cowboys backups Howell and Milton are going to see looks Saturday night that they won’t fully be prepared for.
There’s also the home crowd factor. This is Seattle’s first game since winning the franchise’s second Super Bowl in team history. Lumen Field is going to be loud, energetic, and celebratory. Rookie and backup quarterbacks visiting Lumen Field for the first time have historically struggled with the noise and pace. The Cowboys’ second and third-string offensive lines are going to have a hard time communicating on the road in that environment.
On the Cowboys’ side, they’re breaking in a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker after finishing near the bottom of the league in scoring defense last year. First-year coordinators running vanilla defensive schemes in a preseason opener typically get shredded when facing even a marginally competent offense. And Drew Lock, whatever his career flaws, is more than marginally competent.
I looked at the total too. 38.5 is fine — could go either way depending on which team’s backups get hot. But the side is where I see the clearest edge, and preseason home teams with the better quarterback depth in year three of an established coaching regime tend to cover more often than they don’t.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
