Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, NRG Stadium
Houston is a 2.5-point home favorite over Dallas with a total of 48.5. My play is the Cowboys getting the points.
The fact that jumps off the page is Houston being a home favorite while sitting at 0-3 straight up and 0-3 against the spread. The Texans have lost to Buffalo (36-31), Cincinnati (20-6) and Indianapolis (19-17), and they haven’t covered once. Dallas is 1-2, but 2-1 against the spread, and its two losses came by eight to the Giants and by three on a 56-yard walk-off field goal against Baltimore in Brazil.
ESPN’s FPI has the Cowboys as slight favorites by 1.3 points with a 54% win probability. That’s a clear split from the market’s Texans -2.5. Not every model agrees — Dimers and numberFire both lean Houston — but when a respected model makes the road team the favorite, getting points with that side is the value play.
Houston’s offense is the core problem. The Texans are averaging 18 points per game and have scored just 23 points combined over their last two games. C.J. Stroud threw for 353 yards against Cincinnati in Week 2, but it took him 55 attempts, and Houston still scored only six points. Last week he went 16-of-27 for 167 yards in the loss to Indianapolis. The receiving corps is thin, too: Jayden Higgins is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Nico Collins is working back from a hamstring injury.
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The Cowboys have the offensive edge. Dak Prescott has completed 73 of 105 passes for 730 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception, good for a 107.2 passer rating. CeeDee Lamb went for 112 yards on seven catches against Baltimore. Dallas is scoring 29.3 points per game, including 37 in a Week 2 win over Washington and 31 against the Ravens. Against a Texans defense allowing 25.0 points per game, 24-27 points is a realistic target.
The Dallas defense is the obvious risk. The Cowboys allowed a league-worst 30.1 points per game last season, and this year they’re giving up 179.7 rushing yards per game and a 121.3 opponent passer rating. Houston will move the ball in spots. But the Texans have shown they can’t turn yards into points, and Dallas’ offense gives it a cushion Houston hasn’t been able to match.
The betting split is lopsided — roughly 89% of spread bets are on Dallas — yet the line hasn’t moved off Houston -2.5. That’s worth noting, but the underlying numbers still favor the better team getting points.
Realistic outcomes: Cowboys 27, Texans 24 (Dallas wins outright); Cowboys 24, Texans 21 (Dallas wins outright); Texans 24, Cowboys 23 (1-point margin, Dallas covers +2.5); or Texans 27, Cowboys 20 (7-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Dallas.
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +2.5
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