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Green
Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick.
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, 5-3 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-4, 4-4 ATS), Lambeau Field, Green Bay, NFL Week 10, Sunday, Nov. 15th, 4:15 pm Eastern, Fox
By Z-Man of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cowboys -3/Packers +3
Over/Under: 47.5
Two NFC playoff hopefuls coming off vastly different performances hook up Sunday in Green Bay when the Dallas Cowboys visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.
Most online sportsbooks opened this game with Dallas favored by two or 2 points, with a total of 47 . But the Cowboys were quickly bet up to -3 almost everywhere.
Dallas is also listed at right around -150 on most NFL betting moneylines, with Green Bay getting +130 as underdogs at home.
The Cowboys split their first four games this season, but have won four in a row, including a big 20-16 decision over the Eagles Sunday night in Philadelphia. Dallas outgained Philly 358-297 in holding the ball for almost 32 minutes, and picked off Eagles QB Donovan McNabb twice.
The Packers, meanwhile, split their first four games this season, then won two straight, but have now lost two in a row after getting upset in Tampa last week 38-28. The Packers outgained the Buccaneers 404-279, outrushed TB 170-81 and held the ball for 35 minutes, but gave up a TD on a blocked punt and a long kickoff return in the fourth quarter that set up another Bucs score, as GB blew a 28-17 lead.
So Dallas leads the NFC East by a game over Philadelphia. Green Bay, meanwhile, sits three games behind the first-place Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, and a game behind Philly and Atlanta in the battle for the two NFC wild-card berths.
Cowboys QB Tony Romo looks like he’s gotten over the departure of his good friend Terrell Owens. Through the first eight games of this season, the kid from Burlington, Wisconsin has completed 60% of his passes for 8.4 YPA, which is very good, a 13/5 TD/INT ratio and a 95.8 passers rating.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, despite throwing three INTs in last week’s loss at Tampa, has even better numbers than Romo, hitting on 63% of his throws for 8.7 YPA, a 16/5 TD/INT ratio and a 103.3 rating.
But a matchup that doesn’t bode well for Green Bay involves their O line vs. the Dallas D line. The Packers have allowed a league-high 37 sacks already this season, while the Cowboys, who led the league in sacks last season, have registered 21 QB takedowns.
Through the first half of this season, Green Bay ranks seventh in the league in average time-of-possession at +4:04, while Dallas ranks 12th at +1:26.
On the season, the Cowboys are outgaining opponents on average by a 405-337 YPG margin, and outrushing foes 139-103. The Packers, meanwhile, are out-yarding opponents 377-283 and outgrounding them 121-97.
These two teams have met each of the previous two seasons, with Dallas winning both games. Last year, the Cowboys outrushed the Packers 217-84 on their way to a 27-16 win on a Sunday night at Lambeau. And two years ago, in a game that Rodgers replaced an injured Brett Favre at quarterback for Green Bay, Dallas held off the Pack 37-27 down in Big D.
The Cowboys covered the pointspread both those games, as seven-point chalk at home and three-point faves on the road. And while last year’s game stayed under its total of 50, the game two seasons ago went over its total of 51.
The totals are 5-3 in both Dallas and Green Bay games this season. Cowboys games have averaged 46 points, Packers games 48 points.
So far in NFL betting action this season, home underdogs are 13-27 straight up and 17-23 against the pointspreads.
The Sagarin PURE POINTS rankings at USAToday.com rates Dallas at 25.2, Green Bay at 22.4. Factoring in Sagarin’s updated NFL home-field advantage figure of just less than 1.0, which is as low as we’ve ever seen it, and the Cowboys are about a two-point favorite over the Packers on the Sagarin line.
Z-Man’s Pick: Green Bay wins straight up by a full touchdown!
