The Denver Broncos (2-0) travel to Caesars Superdome to face the New Orleans Saints (0-1-1) in the final week of NFL preseason action. While the Broncos have impressed with convincing victories over the 49ers and Cardinals, the Saints are still searching for their first win after a loss to the Chargers and tie with the Jaguars. More importantly, this game represents the final chance for New Orleans to decide on their starting quarterback, with the competition between Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough still unresolved heading into the regular season.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Broncos -1.5 ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Jarrett Stidham Over 129.5 Passing Yards ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Over 38.5 Total Points ★★★☆☆
Broncos vs Saints Betting Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Denver Broncos | New Orleans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
| Point Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Saints -1, Total 37.5
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Sharp Money Breakdown: Where the Smart Bets Are Going
When this line opened with the Saints as slight favorites, the market quickly adjusted toward Denver. That shift reflects strong confidence in the Broncos’ depth and execution through two preseason games. The Saints’ quarterback competition has created uncertainty about their offensive ceiling, while Denver has shown consistency. The total has also crept up a point, suggesting expectations for more scoring than initially projected — likely due to both teams having something to prove in this final preseason tune-up.
Quarterback Matchup: Bo Nix/Jarrett Stidham vs Spencer Rattler/Tyler Shough – Who Has the Edge?
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix/Jarrett Stidham
- Bo Nix has played sparingly in preseason (6-of-11, 31 yards) but is locked in as starter
- Jarrett Stidham has been excellent in preseason, completing 30-of-38 passes for 376 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
- Denver’s QB room looks settled with Sam Ehlinger in the third spot
New Orleans Saints: Spencer Rattler/Tyler Shough
- Rattler: 25-of-35 for 251 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (71.4% completion) through two games
- Shough: 24-of-34 for 231 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (70.6% completion) through two games
- Saints coach Kellen Moore says the competition remains “really, really close”
QB Edge: Denver Broncos. Their quarterback situation is settled with Nix as the starter, and Stidham has been one of the most efficient QBs in all of preseason. The Saints’ ongoing competition creates uncertainty, though both QBs have shown flashes.
Defense Comparison: Which Unit Will Step Up?
Denver’s defense has been a bright spot in preseason, allowing just 16 points total through two games. Their defensive line has generated consistent pressure, and the secondary has limited big plays. The Broncos ranked highly in several defensive categories last season (#3 in points allowed, #1 in points per play) and have maintained that momentum.
The Saints’ defense has struggled with consistency, allowing 27 points to the Chargers before a better showing against Jacksonville. New Orleans ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed last season (141.4 per game) and hasn’t shown enough improvement in that area this preseason. Rookie Danny Stutsman has been a bright spot at linebacker, but overall, this unit is still searching for identity heading into the regular season.
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Key Betting Trends & Team Stats You Should Know
- Denver is 2-0 straight up and ATS this preseason, winning by an average margin of 20.5 points
- New Orleans is 0-1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS in preseason action
- The Broncos’ offensive efficiency has improved dramatically, averaging 28.5 PPG in preseason
- Saints QBs have been sacked 7 times through two preseason games
- Denver has scored on 9 of 19 drives led by Jarrett Stidham this preseason
- New Orleans is still searching for their starting QB, indicating significant reps for both Rattler and Shough
Troy Franklin: Broncos’ Emerging Weapon
Second-year receiver Troy Franklin has emerged as one of the Broncos’ most impressive young talents this preseason. The former Oregon standout has shown tremendous chemistry with both Nix (his college teammate) and Stidham, recording 7 catches for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns through two preseason games. Franklin’s route-running and blocking ability have both improved dramatically, with Sean Payton specifically praising his perimeter blocking against Arizona. With the Broncos looking to develop more weapons in the passing game, Franklin’s continued development could be a significant storyline to follow in this game and into the regular season.
Caesars Superdome Factor: What to Expect on Game Day
While preseason crowds rarely match regular season intensity, the Superdome still provides an indoor, controlled environment that benefits offensive execution. The Saints’ faithful will be eager to see resolution in the quarterback competition, potentially creating more energy than a typical preseason finale. With perfect conditions for passing and no weather concerns, expect both teams to open up their offenses more than we typically see in preseason finales. For the Saints especially, this represents their final chance to evaluate their quarterbacks in game conditions.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Broncos vs Saints
Primary Play: Broncos -1.5
I’m backing the Broncos to cover the small spread here based on what we’ve seen through two preseason games. Denver has outscored opponents 57-16, showing cohesion on both sides of the ball and excellent quarterback play from Jarrett Stidham. The Saints’ continuing quarterback battle means they’ll be evaluating rather than game-planning, giving Denver an edge in preparation. Sean Payton also has a strong record against his former team and should be motivated to finish the preseason perfect.
Strong Value Play: Over 38.5 Total Points
With both teams having reason to play their quarterbacks longer than typical for a preseason finale, I see scoring opportunities throughout. The Saints need extended looks at both Rattler and Shough in game situations, while Denver’s offensive efficiency has been impressive. Both teams have shown the ability to move the ball, and this should be a more competitive, higher-scoring affair than the typical preseason closer.
Worth Considering: Jarrett Stidham Over 129.5 Passing Yards
Stidham has been razor-sharp this preseason, and Sean Payton will likely give him significant playing time to maintain his rhythm. He’s averaged 188 passing yards per game through two preseason contests, and the Saints’ secondary has shown vulnerability against the pass. With Denver’s emerging receiving corps making plays, Stidham should eclipse this number even with limited time.
Top Player Props for Broncos vs Saints
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham (DEN) | Over 129.5 Passing Yards | -110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Spencer Rattler (NO) | Over 99.5 Passing Yards | -110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Tyler Badie (DEN) | Over 32.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Mason Tipton (NO) | Over 29.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | Anytime Touchdown | +170 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Broncos’ Depth Provides Edge in Preseason Finale
This preseason finale provides a compelling contrast in team situations. Denver enters with confidence, a settled quarterback room, and impressive momentum. The Saints come in still searching for their identity under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, with the pressing need to make a quarterback decision. That fundamental difference in objectives gives Denver a strategic advantage.
The Broncos have demonstrated better depth and consistency on both sides of the ball, and I expect that to continue here. While New Orleans will be motivated to perform well at home, they’re focused more on evaluation than winning. That’s perfectly reasonable for their situation, but it creates a betting edge for us with Denver.
Score Prediction: Denver Broncos 24, New Orleans Saints 20
Note: Our projections about who’s playing in preseason are based on the latest updates from beat reporters, coaches, and players. Sometimes, that info changes at the last minute or doesn’t pan out on game day. If you can’t personally confirm who’s suiting up, we recommend keeping your action light—think “beer money” bets only.
