Denver Broncos (7-4 7-4 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8 5-6 ATS) Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 1 PM EST Sunday December 6, 2009 on CBS
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Broncos -4.5 / Chiefs +4.5
In an AFC West match up this Sunday afternoon the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. Many had given up on the Broncos after they lost 4 straight and fell out of the lead in the division, but on Thanksgiving they looked solid in beating the New York Giants. The Chiefs are heading towards another losing season, but they did win 2 in a row, including beating the defending champion Steelers, before getting crushed last week by the San Diego Chargers.
This season the KC is 2-4 at home and the Broncos are 3-2 on the road.
The Broncos need to keep winning if they are going to make the post season. They especially have to win games like this, as they still have to face the Eagles and the undefeated Colts. The post season is not in the cards for the Chiefs, as the only thing they can look forward to is playing spoiler and getting another high draft pick.
Last week the Broncos beat the New York Giants 26-6 while the Chiefs were humiliated by the San Diego Chargers losing 43-14.
In their win over the Giants the Broncos played solid on both sides of the ball and jumped out to a 16-0 halftime lead. Denver had more passing yards and killed New York in the rushing game out-gaining the Giants 138 yards to 57 yards. The Broncos dominated the Giants in time of possession 35:30 to 24:30 and they forced the Giants into 3 turnovers. The Broncos were underdogs in the game by 4.5 points so they covered the spread and the posted total of 43.5 was surpassed.
In their loss to the Chargers last week the Chiefs did have more rushing yards, but that is pretty much the only positive thing Kansas City did. They were killed in the passing game, as the Chargers had 332 passing yards and the Chiefs only had 170. The Chiefs were dominated in time of possession and they turned the ball over 4 times. The Chiefs allowed the Chargers to gain an average of 11.4 yards per pass and they were only 3/11 on 3rd down conversions. The Chiefs were underdogs by 13.5 points so they did not cover the spread and the posted total of 45 was surpassed.
Even though Denver only has the league’s 18th ranked offense they will be facing a Chiefs’ D that ranks 30th in the league. The Chiefs are having major problems defending the run, giving up an average of 134 rushing yards per game, and defending the pass, giving up an average of 258.4 passing yards per game.
Kyle Orton did have one pick last week, but he was 18/28 for 245 yards and did have 1 TD. He may have a big game against a weak Chiefs’ secondary and his injured ankle has had a long time to heal since Denver’s last game was on Thanksgiving.
The Chiefs will have to put pressure on Orton, but that is easier said than done, as Kansas City has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league (14).
The Chiefs also have the 30th ranked offense and Matt Cassel has only completed 55% of his passes. He has not had many big games this season, but he will have to for Kansas City to win this game.
The Chiefs rushing offense is only averaging 98.4 yards per game.
The Broncos rank 5th on defense and they have one of the best secondaries in the league only giving up an average of 185 passing yards per game.
The Broncos front line D is solid, as they have 32 sacks. The Chiefs; offensive line, which has given up 33 sacks this season, has to protect Cassel and give him time in the pocket to find his targets.
Jason’s Pick: If the Chiefs play like they did in beating the Steelers a couple weeks ago they can win this game, but if they play like they have in the rest of their games they will lose. The Broncos are much better on both sides of the ball but home field advantage previals here and the Chiefs cover the sperad.