Detroit Lions (2-6 ATS 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-8 SU 3-4-1 ATS) Week 10 NFL, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, NY 1 PM EST Sunday November 14, 2010 on FOX
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Det +3/BUF -3
Over/Under Total: 42.5
In a less than marquee match up this Sunday the winless Buffalo Bills host the unlucky Detroit Lions. Unlucky? Yeah, I would say so, as the Lions likely will be without QB Matthew Stafford who went down last week with another shoulder injury and they lost their last game in OT to the New York Jets. In that game rookie DT Ndamukong Suh had to kick an extra point because of an injury to K Jason Hanson. He missed the kick and the New York Jets ended up tying the game and winning in OT. I don’t think Suh was drafted #2 overall because of his kicking skills.
The Bills are the last winless team in the NFL, but they have lost their last 3 games by a total of 9 points including 2 OT losses. Buffalo is off to their worst start in 2 decades, but they have been playing pretty well even though late turnovers have killed them. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well since becoming the starter and last week he passed for 299 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT in the 22-19 loss to the Chicago Bears. In each of the last 2 games he has been picked off in the 4th quarter and in the last 3 games he has 5 INT’s with 4 coming in the 2nd half.
Detroit has yet to win on the road this season (0-4) while the Bills have yet to win a game so no matter what one losing streak will end this Sunday in Buffalo.
Buffalo has not only lost all their games, but they also recently lost 2 starters for the year in WR Roscoe Parrish (33 rec 400 yards 2 TD) and ILB Andra Davis (44 tackles 1 INT).
Oddsmakers have opened the line with the Bills as 3-point favorites and that may be kind since they will likely be facing Detroit’s 3rd string QB Drew Stanton. Stafford is OUT with another shoulder injury while backup Shaun Hill has an injured forearm. It is never good when a team says in a statement that they are “holding out hope” that the backup will play, as Detroit recently did. That is not putting a lot of confidence is Stanton. Whoever takes the snaps for the Lions will be facing a Bills’ pass defense that has been solid this season ranking 6th in the league. Last week the Bills held the Bears to only 178 passing yards.
In a sweet match up in this game the 30th ranked rushing offense of the Lions will be going up against the 32nd rushing defense of the Bills. Last week the Lions rushed for a grand total of 78 yards, but that was against a great run defense of the Jets. Detroit RB Jahvid Best has not had the best rookie season so far and in the New York game he only rushed for 48 yards averaging 3 yards per carry. Best has averaged less than 4 yards per carry in 5 of 8 games this season, but I think he will have the best game of his young career this Sunday. He will be facing a struggling Buffalo run defense and he will likely get a lot of carries, especially if Stanton gets the starting nod.
The Bills also have a highly touted rookie RB in C.J. Spiller, but since the Bills are all about the passing game these days he has not really had a chance to show his stuff. He and fellow RB Fred Jackson combined to rush for a grand total of 36 yards in the loss to the Bears neither averaging 3 yards per carry. For the season neither is averaging more than 4 yards per carry. This tandem will do better in this game facing a Lions’ rushing D that only ranks 22nd in the league. However, they may not get a lot of carries in this Sunday since Fitzpatrick will air it out often against Detroit and light up their 27th ranked passing defense.
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While the Lions are 4 games under .500 betting on them has been a good proposition this season, as they are 7-2 ATS and have covered the spread in their last 5 games. The Bills are 3-4-1 ATS on the season and when they are at home and facing a team with a losing road record they are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Bills will finally break through and win their first game of the season this Sunday. Sure, Buffalo cannot run the ball well or defend the run, but Fitzpatrick will have another good game and carry them into the W column and they will also cover the 3-point spread.