Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

Detroit Lions (11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Saturday, December 30th, 2023. 8:15 PM (EST)
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: DET +6.5/DAL -6.5
Moneyline: DET +235/DAL -280
Total: 53.5

The Dallas Cowboys dropped their 2nd game in a row last week in a disappointing 22-20 loss on the road to the Miami Dolphins. While it wasn’t a moral victory, the Cowboys did play well on the defensive side of the ball holding Miami’s explosive offense relatively in check. Likewise, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott led a potential game-winning drive late in the 4th quarter and found WR Brandin Cooks for the go-ahead score. While the Dolphins were able to rally for a game-winning touchdown drive, it at least silenced the critics around the play of Prescott who continues to play at a high level. On Sunday, the Cowboys will look to get back in the “W” column when they host the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium.

The visiting Lions are coming off their 2nd straight victory in a tough 30-24 win on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. At 11-4 SU, the Lions have already secured the NFC North and are still in the hunt for a potential No.1 seed though they would need a lot of help. With that being said, the Lions are likely fighting for a No.2 or No.3 seed over the next two weeks which will have significant impacts on the opening round of the playoffs. Earlier this year, the Lions were playing at a high level that rivaled the best teams in the NFC. While their play the last few weeks has not been quite as strong, this road trip to Dallas could be a good measuring stick of how Detroit will compete in their first playoff appearance since 2016.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

From a betting standpoint, it would be hard to ignore the Cowboys’ dominance at home this season. Dallas has played extremely well inside AT&T Stadium out-scoring opponents 279-108. Offensively, I believe Dallas will be able to move the football down the field with QB Dak Prescott. The Lions pass defense has relinquished 234 yards per game on the season and rank 27th in the NFL in coverage grades according to PFF. The Lions also play a lot of zone coverage which Prescott has destroyed which means I’m expecting big outings from WR CeeDee Lamb and potentially TE Jake Ferguson.

The real question that I have, from a betting standpoint, is can the Dallas defense contain this Lions offense. Detroit has been committed to the running game with RB David Montgomery and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs. We have seen the Cowboys’ defense be extremely vulnerable against the run in recent weeks and that is likely the Lions’ best strategy for keeping this Cowboys pass-rush at bay. If the running game does not get going, I think the pass-rush will be too much for QB Jared Goff. Therefore, it is imperative that Detroit finds success on the ground if they are going to compete for the full 60 minutes of play!

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• The Lions are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games.
• The Lions are 10-3 SU in the last 13 games.
• The Lions have hit the “over” in 6 of the last 7 games.
• The Lions have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games on the road.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games at home.
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in 4 of their last 6 games.
• The Cowboys are 15-0 SU in the last 15 games at home.
• The Cowboys are 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games against Detroit.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

The Dallas Cowboys have played their best football at home this season inside AT&T Stadium. On the heels of a two-game losing streak and a much-needed win, I’m expecting another strong performance for Dallas as they look to build some confidence going into the playoffs.

Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -6.5