Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 4, 2026
4:05 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota is a 10.5-point home favorite over Miami with a total of 38.5. My play is the Under.
The Dolphins’ offensive collapse is the entry point here. Miami is 0-3 and has scored just 36 points in three games: 13 in a 27-13 loss to Las Vegas, 13 in a 35-13 loss to San Francisco and 10 in last week’s 24-10 loss to Kansas City. That’s 12 points per game with just three touchdowns all season. Now Malik Willis and the offense face a Minnesota defense that allows 4.6 yards per play (fourth in the NFL) and ranks among the league’s best on third down and in the red zone.
It gets worse for Miami without De’Von Achane, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Achane was the Dolphins’ only real big-play threat, and without him, Jeff Hafley’s offense has even less ability to create explosive plays. Realistically, Miami is looking at 10-14 points against Brian Flores’ defense.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard either. The Vikings are 3-0, but it hasn’t come easy. Kyler Murray was concussed 11 plays into the opener, and Carson Wentz led a 29-point run to finish off a 39-22 win over Green Bay. Wentz started a 9-3 win over Chicago in Week 2. Murray returned last week, but Minnesota needed an 86-yard Myles Price punt return touchdown to beat Tampa Bay 23-16. The defense and special teams are carrying this team, and Kevin O’Connell’s offense is still finding its rhythm.
The trends back the Under. The Under is 8-2 in Minnesota’s last 10 games and 6-4 in Miami’s last 10. The Vikings’ last two games produced 12 and 39 total points.
Game script favors it too. Once Minnesota builds a two-score lead, there’s no reason for O’Connell to push the pace with Murray just back from a concussion. Expect a steady diet of the run game in the second half while the defense suffocates a Dolphins offense that has struggled to finish drives all season. Realistic Vikings output: 20-24 points.
That gives us a combined range of 30-38 points, just under 38.5.
The main risk is the number itself. This total opened at 39.5 and has already been bet down to 38.5, and Dimers projects Vikings 25, Dolphins 15 — 40 total points. But that projection leans on Minnesota’s defense and special teams scoring. Two of the Vikings’ three games have seen the offense held under 25 points, and a Miami offense with three touchdowns in three games won’t add much to the total.
Realistic outcomes: Vikings 24, Dolphins 10 (34 total); Vikings 23, Dolphins 13 (36 total); Vikings 20, Dolphins 10 (30 total); or Vikings 27, Dolphins 14 (41 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 38.5. The Over needs a Dolphins offense that has scored three touchdowns all season to find some life against a top-5 defense.
The Pick: Dolphins/Vikings Under 38.5
Take the Under with Miami’s offense stuck in neutral, and bring a bigger bankroll into the late games. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook can score a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. It’s a FREE way to bet the Dolphins/Vikings Under 38.5 and the rest of your Week 4 NFL picks.
