Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Monday, September 28, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Soldier Field
Philadelphia is a 3.5-point road favorite over Chicago on Monday Night Football with a total of 41.5. My play is the Under.
The Caleb Williams injury is the entry point here. Chicago’s starting quarterback is out with a hamstring injury and Tyson Bagent gets the start on Monday Night Football. That’s a significant downgrade at the position. Bagent is 2-2 in his NFL starting career and has been serviceable as a backup, but he doesn’t push the ball downfield or manufacture big plays the way Williams does. Against the Eagles’ defense — which has allowed just 16 total points across two games — Bagent will struggle to sustain drives and finish possessions in the end zone.
The Bears’ Week 2 performance without Williams (once he went down mid-game) was telling. Chicago scored just 3 points against Minnesota after Williams left the game. That’s a hard ceiling on Chicago’s offensive output when Bagent is running the show. Realistically, the Bears are looking at 10-14 points in this game. That’s not pessimism — that’s the actual production ceiling of a Bears offense with a backup quarterback against Philadelphia’s defensive scheme.
The head-to-head Under trend is one of the most compelling on the board. The Under has hit in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. Last year’s Bears 24-15 win at Philadelphia in November was the most recent — well under any reasonable total. That’s not a coincidence. Both organizations play defensive-oriented football, both coaches game-plan for physical matchups, and the resulting games consistently produce lower scoring than the market expects.
The Eagles’ offense has been sluggish this season too. Philadelphia won Week 1 24-22 and needed a late comeback to beat Tennessee 20-19 in Week 2. That’s an offense that isn’t putting up big numbers. Jalen Hurts has completed his throws but hasn’t been dominant, and Saquon Barkley played just 15.8% of snaps in Week 2 due to a stinger. If Barkley is limited again Monday, Philadelphia’s ceiling drops further. Realistically, the Eagles score 20-24 points against Chicago’s defense.
Bagent limits Chicago’s offensive ceiling to the 10-14 range. Add in Philadelphia’s 20-24 range and we’re looking at combined totals of 30-38 points. Well under 41.5.
Ben Johnson’s coaching approach also supports the Under. When the Bears play at home in a defensive-oriented environment, Johnson tends to lean on the running game and shorten the game rather than pushing for big offensive drives. That approach with Bagent at quarterback means limited possessions, more punts, and field position battles that keep scoring low.
Multiple prediction models back the Under here. SportsLine’s projection model has been signaling Under 41.5 based on both the Bagent factor and both defenses’ consistent play. Expert Emory Hunt is on the Under. The head-to-head trend (5-0 to the Under in the last 5 meetings) reinforces the same conclusion.
Realistic outcomes: Eagles 20, Bears 13 (33 total); Eagles 24, Bears 14 (38 total); Eagles 17, Bears 14 (31 total); or Eagles 27, Bears 21 (48 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 41.5. Only if both offenses produce above expectations does the total push over, and neither team has shown that kind of upside this season.
The Pick: Eagles/Bears Under 41.5
