Expert Pick: Arizona Cardinals vs. Las Vegas Raiders

by | Sep 17, 2022 | nfl

Arizona Cardinals (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)

NFL Week 2

When: Sunday, September 18 at 4:25 pm ET

Where: Allegiant Stadium

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ARI +5.5/LVR -5.5 (Bet it FREE at MyBookie with a 100% bonus when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100)

Over/Under Total: 51.5

Two teams looking to put a checkmark in the win column meet in Las Vegas in Week 2 at the Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders opened as a 2.5 point spread favorite on some boards but have been bet up -5.5 while the total line hit the board at 50.5 and has been hovering around 51.5 to 52 points since.

Recent Form

The Cardinals looked overmatched in their opener, getting out yarded 488 to 282 in a 44-21 home loss to the Rams, coming nowhere near covering the +6 spread. The 65 points scored easily surpassed the 54 O/U line. The loss was Arizona’s third consecutive straight up and against the spread dating back to last season and the sixth in their last seven games overall.

Las Vegas fell 24-19 on the road against their AFC West divisional opponent in a game where their offensive line got blown up, allowing six sacks. QB Derek Carr had a rough game with all the pressure tossing up three interceptions, but he did finish the day with 295 yards through the air.

The 43 points put up on the board had Under bettors cashing their tickets, landing ten points below the closing total line. The Under has been a strong bet in their recent games (2021 -2022), going 5-1 in their last six and 7-3 in their past ten.

Head-to-Head Matchups

These two squads haven’t played each other since 2018, so there isn’t any value in these stats, but for the record, here are the numbers. They’ve played just four times since 2006, with each team winning two games straight up and the Raiders getting the cover in three of the matches.

Injuries of Note

The Cardinals are a bit thin at receiver with DeAndre Hopkins serving a suspension, Andy Isabella out after getting hurt in Week 1, and Rondale Moore will miss again this week. The offensive line may get some help if LG Justin Pugh can get back in there after missing last week. He’s questionable but did practice in a limited fashion on Friday. On the defensive side of the ball, JJ Watt is questionable, but like Pugh, he did have a limited practice on Friday.

The Raiders will be without a trio of starters on Sunday. Center Andre James left last week’s game with a concussion and has been ruled out this week. LG Dylan Parham is expected to take over his spot, and with Las Vegas using a seven-man rotation on their offensive line, the loss may not be huge this week. Also out is MLB Denzel Perryman and FS Tre’von Moehrig. Perryman is a tackling machine 154 combined last season and, on paper, has the biggest shoes to fill.

Trends

  • Las Vegas is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Las Vegas’s last six games
  • Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games
  • Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last ten games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Arizona’s last five games on the road

Cardinals at Las Vegas Pick Against the Spread

We’re not getting the best of the line here with some books still hanging a -3 on last Sunday, but I still think there is some value in backing the home side. The Cardinals were outstanding last season the road, but I don’t feel that the offense without Hopkins and Moore can compete with the Raiders. Derek Carr looked rusty in the opener, but he didn’t play in the preseason. He still managed nearly 300 yards, and at home this week and with a game under his belt, he should show a lot of improvement and his timing with new weapon DeVante Adams (10 catches 141 yards) is only going to get better. Keep in mind that when the Raiders had Henry Ruggs III last season, they scored 26 or more points in regulation time in five of their first seven games overall and 27 or more in three of their first four home games. I’m banking on the offense putting up those numbers again this week, and I think Las Vegas can extend the margin enough to get the money.

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