Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 24, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Lambeau Field
Green Bay is a 7-point home favorite over Atlanta on Thursday Night Football with a total of 44.5. My play is the Under.
The total moved from 46.5 at open all the way down to 44.5. That’s a 2-point drop reflecting Under money on the market side. When both spread and total move in specific directions before kickoff, the market is telling us something specific about how these teams project — Green Bay to control the game defensively while both offenses struggle to sustain drives.
Atlanta’s Under trend has been perfect so far this season. Both of the Falcons’ games have hit the Under, and there’s a specific reason for that. The Falcons’ offense has been unable to sustain drives. Cooper Rush had what analysts described as an “abysmal” Week 2 performance, and the Falcons’ quarterback situation heading into Thursday is uncertain. Whether it’s Rush, backup Jack Strand, or a rushed return from Michael Penix Jr., none of those options are going to move the ball consistently against a Packers defense that’s been solid at generating pressure.
Jeff Ulbrich’s Atlanta defense is playing aggressively with a blitz-heavy scheme in his first season as Falcons DC. That defense should be effective against Jordan Love, who was sacked three times in the Packers’ overtime win over the Jets last week. Green Bay’s offensive line has been dealing with pass-protection issues, and Love’s decision-making under pressure has been questionable early this season. Against Ulbrich’s aggressive scheme, expect more sacks, more turnovers, and more three-and-outs — all of which suppress point totals.
Green Bay’s offense hasn’t clicked either. Their Week 1 loss to Minnesota was a 39-22 shootout, but their Week 2 win was a 27-24 overtime thriller where they needed a late touchdown just to force overtime. That’s not a offense that’s putting up 30 points on a regular basis. Josh Jacobs (still on the Commissioner’s Exempt List) and Micah Parsons (still on PUP) are both missing, which limits the Packers’ offensive ceiling significantly.
Realistic outcomes: Packers 24, Falcons 13 (37 total); Packers 27, Falcons 17 (44 total); Packers 21, Falcons 14 (35 total); or Packers 28, Falcons 21 (49 total). Three of four scenarios stay under 44.5. The fourth scenario requires the Falcons offense — which has been unable to sustain drives against real defenses — to suddenly produce 21+ points. That’s not the profile of the Cooper Rush / Jack Strand / limited Penix offense we’ve seen through two weeks.
Thursday Night Football also tends to produce lower-scoring games. Both teams have short weeks, both need to be conservative to protect their rosters, and both are dealing with offensive line issues that limit their ability to run explosive plays. That short-week factor further supports the Under.
The market is telling us this game will stay under, and the specific offensive limitations on both sides support that outcome. The Falcons can’t score enough to push the total over, and the Packers won’t need to run up the score to win.
The Pick: Falcons/Packers Under 44.5
