Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Monday Night Football
Monday, October 5, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Caesars Superdome
New Orleans is a 2.5-point home favorite over Atlanta on Monday Night Football with a total of 47.5. My play is the Falcons getting the points.
The pass rush matchup is the entry point here. The Falcons rank sixth in the NFL in pressure percentage and first in PFF pass rush grade, while the Saints rank 23rd in PFF pass block grade. Tyler Shough has been productive, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards, but he’s been sacked on 20% of his pressures through three weeks. Atlanta’s defense also ranks third in success rate and eighth in opponent EPA per play. That’s a defense built to make Shough uncomfortable all night.
Michael Penix Jr. changes Atlanta’s offense. The Falcons managed just 3 points in a loss to Carolina and 13 in a loss to Pittsburgh before Penix returned from last November’s torn ACL. In his first start back, he went 18-of-25 for 256 yards and a touchdown and ranked top four among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback as Atlanta rolled Green Bay 35-14 on Thursday Night Football. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two scores, and the Falcons piled up 242 rushing yards. Drake London has topped 100 yards in all but one of his last seven games with Penix.
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The Saints’ defense is in rough shape for this one. New Orleans is allowing 27.7 points per game (26th), ranks 31st in defensive success rate and 31st in run defense success rate. Now it’s banged up in the front seven. Linebackers Kaden Elliss and Pete Werner and edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings all missed practice, and Elliss, Werner and Jennings account for 62% of the Saints’ linebacker snaps this season. Against Robinson and a run game that just went for 242 yards, a depleted Saints front is in trouble.
New Orleans does have reasons for confidence. The Saints are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, they upset Baltimore on the road in Week 2, and they rank fourth in the NFL in second-half scoring at 18.7 points per game. That late-game production is the biggest risk to this pick. But both teams are 1-2, Atlanta is the healthier side, and Kevin Stefanski’s offense finally looks like itself with Penix under center.
Realistic outcomes: Falcons 23, Saints 20 (Falcons win outright); Falcons 27, Saints 20 (Falcons win outright); Saints 24, Falcons 23 (1-point margin, Falcons cover +2.5); or Saints 27, Falcons 20 (7-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Atlanta.
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5
Take the Falcons and the points with Penix back and a depleted Saints front seven, and bring a bigger bankroll into Monday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Atlanta +2.5 and the rest of your Week 4 NFL picks.
