Texans vs. Jags Pick – Lay the Big Number?

by | Last updated Sep 22, 2023 | nfl

Houston Texans (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1, 1-1), 9/24/23

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 24

Where: EverBank Stadium

TV: Fox

Point spread: Hou +9.5/Jax -9.5 (Bet your picks for free this weekend with a sportsbook bonus!)

Money line: Texans +330/Jags -420

Total: 43.5

The Texans owned the Jaguars for almost five seasons, but it appears the worm is turning in this AFC South rivalry, heading into Sunday afternoon’s game in Jacksonville.

Houston beat the Jags nine times in a row until late last season when Jacksonville finally snapped that skid. Now, the Jaguars are favored by almost double-digits over the Texans.

Which way are we going with our free Texans/Jags pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 3 NFL betting market opened Jacksonville as a 10-point home favorite over Houston, with an over/under of right around 45. Early betting action then dipped that spread to 9.5 and dropped that total to 43.5.

Texans Betting Preview

Houston is off to an 0-2 start to the Coach Ryans/QB Stroud era after falling at home to Indianapolis last Sunday, 31-20. The Texans, who were actually favored by a point, fell down the Colts 14-0 six minutes into the game and never recovered. Houston trailed 28-10 at the half and 31-10 into the fourth quarter, before adding ten meaningless points to make the final score a bit more respectable.

The Texans actually out-gained Indianapolis 389-353, but most of their yardage came after falling down by three scores. Houston also got out-rushed 126-52 and gave up six sacks after giving up five last week.

The Texans opened their season with a 25-9 loss at Baltimore. Houston didn’t actually play too badly that day, especially on defense, but it did look like a team on the rebuild playing under a new head coach with a rookie at quarterback.

Jaguars Betting Preview

Jacksonville is 1-1 on the season after falling at home to Kansas City last Sunday 17-9. The Jaguars, with revenge on their minds, drew first blood with a second-quarter field goal but trailed 7-6 at the half. The Jags then allowed the Chiefs to drive the first possession of the second half 81 yards to a touchdown, later botched a 1st-and-goal from the Kansas City 1-yard line and ended up short ATS as 3.5-point home dogs.

Jacksonville got out-gained by KC 399-271, managed just 71 yards rushing, and just basically missed out on several scoring opportunities.

The Jags opened this season with a 31-21 win at Indianapolis. Jacksonville basically out-played the Colts that day and covered at -3.5.

Texans-Jaguars Recent History

Houston beat Jacksonville nine times in a row through the first meeting between the teams last season. However, most of that run involved Deshaun Watson at QB for the Texans and did not involve Trevor Lawrence at QB for the Jags. Jacksonville finally snapped that skid with a 31-3 Week 17 victory last season in Houston.

NFL Betting Trends

  • NFL home teams are just 13-19 SU, 11-19-2 ATS so far this season.
  • NFL favorites are 18-14 SU but 11-19-2 ATS so far this season.
More Free NFL Picks: Dallas at Arizona Week 3 Shocker >>>

Totals Report

The totals are split 1-1 in Texans games this season, which are averaging 43 total points.

The totals are split 1-1 in Jaguars games, averaging 39 points.

The Under was 12-4 in Week 1 of this NFL season, but the Over bet was 13-3 in Week 2.

The Under cashed in both Texans/Jags games last year and averaged just 27 points.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Jacksonville may have let its pursuit of “revenge” get in the way last week against Kansas City. We expect a bounce-back performance from the Jaguars this week. Meanwhile, Houston is a team playing through the learning curve of another new coaching regime with a rookie starting at QB. Plus, the line moved just enough in the right direction. We’re giving the points with Jacksonville. Bet your football picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbok!