Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick 10/20/19

by | Oct 17, 2019 | nfl

Houston Texans (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, October 20, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: CBS

Point Spread: Hou +1 / Ind -1 (SportBet)
Over/Under Total: 47.5

The Houston Texans make their way back to America’s heartland for an AFC South battle in Indianapolis with the Colts. In an interesting scheduling oddity, both teams are coming off impressive wins against the Chiefs in Kansas City, with the Texans winning last week and the Colts 2 weeks ago before their bye. 5DIMES has made Indianapolis 1 point favorites with the over / under set at 47½. The play is to take the Colts at home and lay the point. Here are three reasons.

Indy Has Owned the Texans Over the Past 2 Years

These teams met five times in the past two seasons, including the playoffs last year, with the Colts winning 4 of 5 and the only loss coming in overtime last September. The playoff game was in Houston with the Texans favored, but Indy dominated the game from the opening kickoff winning 21-7. Of course, the big change from that game to Sundays is Jacoby Brissett has taken over behind center after Andrew Luck retired. Brissett has been up to the challenge through 5 weeks and comes in with a 10-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Brissett should be up to the challenge this week, but the key difference should be the Colt offensive line. The line has kept Brissett upright all year, allowing only six sacks through 5 games. They have also opened up holes for Marlon Mack and the other Indy backs who are averaging 140 rushing yards per game. Mack ran over the Texan defense last January in the playoffs to the tune of 148 yards at a 6 yard per carry pace. The stats may not be as gaudy this week, but expect Mack and primary backup Jordan Wilkens to have a lot of success.

The Texan defense had been showing well against some weak competition prior to last week. Then in KC, they showed they could step up against “elite competition” when they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 309 total yards and only 24 points. They only sacked Mahomes once last week, but they were constantly pressuring him. They are 12th in the league with 16 sacks, but that doesn’t mean they can pressure Brissett. They didn’t record a sack last year against Indy in the playoff game despite Luck dropping back 32 times. The Texans have a major injury concern with cornerback Bradley Roby expected to miss time after injuring his hamstring Sunday. Jonathan Joseph starts opposite Roby and also has a hamstring injury that kept him out against the Chiefs. T.Y Hilton will have a field day going up against the backups if Roby and Joseph don’t suit up. The Colt offense will continue their recent success against the Texans, and control the flow of the game.

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Houston’s Offense Will Slow Down in Indy

Deshaun Watson has been on fire for the past two weeks, and his strong performances have put him in the MVP race. But those performances came against 2 of the worst defenses in the league in the Chiefs and the Falcons. Houston combined for well over 1000 yards in those two games but totaled just over 500 yards against the Jaguars and Panther defenses – and only 265 passing yards. The Texan offensive line has continuously played better this year and has done an excellent job of creating running lanes for Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Watson has not been sacked in the last two games after going down 18 times in the first four games. If Watson has time, he will look for DeAndre Hopkins, but the Colts have been one of the few teams Hopkins has struggled against. Indy held Hopkins to 5 catches and 37 yards last January.

The Colts have also had some injury issues with their defense, but they should be getting healthier this week. MLB Darius Leonard and Safety Clayton Geathers have cleared the concussion protocol and should suit up. Safety Malik Hooker could also return for the Colts stop unit. Indy is allowing opponents over 5 yards per carry so Leonard’s return should be especially welcome. Indy is middle of the pack in sacking opposing QBs but should be able to get by the Texan O line and pressure Watson. Houston’s starting right tackle Tytus Howard will miss time with a torn MCL, which further weakens the Texan OL. Indy’s defense held KC to 13 points and Sacked Mahomes 4 times. Look for them to have another strong performance this week at home against Houston.

There Is Line Value With Indy

Houston and Indy have played very similar schedules, both have lost games they shouldn’t have, and both have beaten the Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Texans have the recency bias with their win coming last week, while most everyone has forgotten about the Colts win two weeks ago. With Indy’s success against Houston, they are at least equal teams, so the line should be at least Indy -3. Houston is playing its second consecutive road game and has to get up for this game immediately after their big win against the Chiefs. Indy has had a week off to get over that win, get healthy, and get ready for this division game. Indy is 12-9-2 against the spread since Frank Reich took over as head coach last year, so Reich will have his team on point for this big game.

Lay the Points With the Colts

Indy -1 is the play this week. Jacoby Brissett and company have Houston’s number, will control the trenches, and have a strong home-field advantage. The Colts will win the game and cover the short spread. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a 50% REAL CASH bonus up to $1000 and make the Colts a +19 underdog by jamming them into a massive 20 point NFL teaser found at Wagerweb!