Houston Texans(12-3SU,9-6ATS) vs.Indianapolis Colts(10-5SU,10-5ATS)
Date/Time:December30th, 1:00PM EST
Where:Lucas Oil Stadium,Indianapolis, Indiana
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: Hou -7/IND +7
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With both teams heading to the postseason, the Houston Texans willlook to keep home field advantage throughout while the Indianapolis Colts, locked into the No.5 seed, look to keep their momentum heading into the playoffs. They should get a huge emotional boost from the return of Chuck “strong”Pagano, who will be back coaching on the sideline.
The Houston Texans will look to bounce back after last week’s no show at home. The Vikings shocked Houston by winning 23-6 as 7.5-point underdogs. The Vikings out-gained the Texans by 158 yards, the largest margin of the season. If you are a fan of the Texans you take comfort in knowing that your team is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATSafter a loss this season. The two previous lossesagainstNew England and Green Bay happened to be against good passing quarterbacks. Andrew Luck falls into this category as he has passed for 4,183 yards this season, whilesetting the NFL rookie QB mark for passing yards in a single season. Andrew Luck still needs to improve on hisQBRof 75.6 and 21/18 TD/INT ratio. I am sure he will be even better next season. The Colts defeated the Chiefs last week 20-13 as 4.5-point chalk. It wasn’t easy as the Colts were out-stattedby a season-high 219 yards. It was the second highest total by any team this season. Lets see how the Colts defense responds at home. I have a good feeling they will be just fine.
These two teams just played three weeks ago and the Houston Texans won 29-17, as 10-point home chalk. They out-gained the Colts by a whopping 145 yards, mostly due to the Colts lack of passing yards. Andrew Luck was just 13-of-27 for 186 yards. He did throw two touchdowns, but it was Matt Schauband Andre Johnson who stole the show. Matt threw for 261 yards and Andre Johnson was targeted 13 times, catching 11 balls for 151 yards and onetouchdown. You can bet the Colts will be better preparedat defending the passthis time around. The Colts have been great at home in all phases of the game. On defense, the Colts are allowing 45 yards less at home than on the road. It’s been a nice home fieldadvantageat Lucas Oil Stadium as the Colts are 6-1 ATS this season.
The Colts have been out-stattedin three straight games and will certainly want to put a complete game together heading into the playoffs. Indy is still a solid 7-3 ITS (in the stats) in their last 10 games. Winning NFLteams installed as underdogsfrom Week 12 on out are 22-5 ATSif they have been out-gained in threestraightgames. You just can’t get that type of info anywhere else but right hereathttp://www.predictem.com/. The Texans are just 4-6 ITS intheirlast 10 games and have a minus-67 net average. The Texans defense has been getting worse as the season has progressed.Especiallythe pass defense as this unit has given up huge plays up the middle. Look for Andrew Luck and Colts to spread the Texans out and pass early and often. Houston has allowed more passing yards than they have gained in five of the past seven games.
The Home team is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings. This ties in to the fact the Colts are 6-1 ATS at home this season. That adds up to a nice 11-1 ATS angle on the home team. I have been riding the Colts this year with tremendous success. My record is 5-0 when picking the Colts either as a service play or free pick.Checkthis stat out. The Texans are 2-16 SU and 4-13 ATS in all Dome games since 1993while the Colts are 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS inDome game this season. The Texans are 4-8 SU and 4-8 ATS in all December gamesover the last three seasons. The Colts are 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in all December games during that same time span.The Colts are 12-6 ATS as a homeunderdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Indianapolis Colts +7
This line opened at -4.5 and has been bet up to this current line of -7. I think this line is at least 3 points higher than it should be. The Colts will be better prepared at stopping J.J.Watt who was a major problem for the Colts last time around, recording three sacks. Big game for the Colts and the head coach and I justdon’tsee the Colts getting blown out in this spot. Take the Colts and thegenerous7 points.
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