Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Preview and Pick – Point Spread

Houston Texans (7-7) 6-7-1 ATS, 4-10 O/U at Miami Dolphins (7-7) 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U, Week 16, Sunday December 27, 2009 1:00 p.m. EST Land Shark Stadium
By Wilson of Predictem.com

Point Spread: Houston +3/Miami -3
Over/Under: 45

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The Houston Texans didnt have the same punch they did against Seattle a couple of weeks ago but they found a way to squeeze out a 16-13 victory over the one-win St. Louis Rams last week. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins also were involved in a 3-point game but they were on the other side of the coin as they lost in overtime to the Tennessee Titans 27-24.

Miami lost for the first time this season in the month of December after winning six straight under Coach Tony Sparano. The Dolphin fans were upset but they really cant complain too much as their team has won 6 of 7 and considering the lousy start to the season I would say thats pretty darn good.

The Texans come into this weeks matchup averaging 23.4 points per game and 377 yards of total offense with 291 yards passing and 86.1 on the ground. Defensively, the Texans allow 20.4 points per game and 322 yards of total offense to their opponents with 210 yards through the air and 112 yards rushing. In their last three games they have averaged 22 points and given up just 14 to the competition.

Miami is averaging 22.6 points per game and 340 yards of total offense. The Dolphins gain 192 yards passing and 148 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Dolphins allow 23.8 points per contest and 343 yards of total offense to the opponents with 236 yards passing and another 107 yards rushing. In Miamis last three games they have averaged 20 points and allowed 19.3 to the opposition.

Houston is 4-3 ATS on the road this season, and 4-6-1 ATS on grass while they are 2-1 ATS on turf.

Miami is 3-3 ATS at home this year and 5-1 O/U at home as well. They are also 7-4 ATS on grass and 1-2 ATS on turf.

The line on this game opened at Miami -3 with a total of 46. Most offshore oddsmakers are showing Miami -3 with a total of 45. The Las Vegas Sportsbooks which include the Las Vegas Hilton, The Mirage, Hard Rock and Planet Hollywood are all showing Miami -3 with a total of 45 as well. This should be a decent matchup of two teams with an identical record.

Houston QB, Matt Schaub has a QB rating of 98.9 to go along with his 4,181 yards, 25 TDs and 13 INTs. Schaub averages 8.15 yards per pass completion, and he has a 68 percent completion rate.

Miamis QB, Chad Henne has a 73.8 QB rating to accompany his 2,416 yards passing this season. Henne has 10 TDs and 12 INTs on the season, and he averages 6.4 yards per pass completion. He also has a 59 percent completion rate.

The under is 6-2 in Houstons last 8 games as the underdog. The under is 8-1 in Miamis last 9 games in week 16. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC.

Miami will be tough at home especially with the record they have as they will try to finish above .500 and stop Houston from doing the same.

Miami fans are tolerating this years turn back after going 11-5 last season but hey, the schedule was a bit more difficult this year coupled with some injuries and rebuilding and all that! The Dolphins will certainly look for a belated Christmas gift by beating the Texans on Sunday.

Wilsons Pick: I like the over in this game. Luck to ya.