Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Pick
Indianapolis Colts (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Point Spread: IND +5 / HOU -5
Power Ratings: Houston -1
Takeaways From Week 13
The Colts saw a five-game winning streak brought to an end when Indianapolis was blanked last week on the road at the hands of divisional rival Jacksonville. The Jaguars conjured up a defensive performance that was reminiscent of the play that earned them an AFC South crown in 2017. Indianapolis was defeated 6-0, despite being favored by four points.
On the contrary, the Texans continue to win at will. Houston has now extended their winning streak to nine games, and as a result, the Texans sit comfortably with a three-game lead for the AFC South over their counterparts for this pivotal division match-up. A victory for Houston combined with a Tennessee loss will get the South wrapped up for the Texans. This narrative is nothing short of a Hollywood movie after Houston started off their campaign on a sinister note when they dropped their first three games of the season.
How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis-Houston Game
72% of the betting public have stepped in on the Texans as their play has continued to compel many to back them. As a result of the early lean on Houston, the line has already moved by a point from its opening number of -4.
In the last four fixtures between the Colts and Texans, each side has won twice. Most recently, the Texans defeated the Colts in Indianapolis, but overtime was required. The final tally was Houston edging out Indy 37-34, affording Houston a cover as a one-point favorite.
Both teams enter into this contest with no injuries to report regarding any pertinent personnel.
When Indianapolis Has the Ball
There is little mystery to how the Indianapolis offense is built and what makes it tick. That individuals name is Andrew Luck. The Colts quarterback is engineering an MVP-caliber season with 3,360 passing yards, throwing 32 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions while completing 67.9% of his passes. As a result of Luck’s efforts, the Colts offense has been able to score an eighth-ranked 27.1 points per game while also producing a remarkable 377.9 yards of total offense per game (9th in the NFL).
When Houston Has the Ball
The Texans feature one of the fiercest tandems of wide-receivers in the game, including a premiere play-maker in Demaryius Thomas and one of the game’s best in DeAndre Hopkins who has produced an incredible 1,115 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns on the year. This dynamic duo is the tip of the iceberg as the Texans bread and butter is their rushing attack that sits third in the league averaging 140.8 yards per game. The prolific running game is spearheaded by running back Lamar Miller and complemented by dual-threat quarterback Deshaun Watson. As a whole, the Texans score 25.2 points per game (12th in the NFL).
As a whole, Houston has been a cash-cow against the spread as of late as they have gone 5-1 ATS in their previous six outings. In this series, in particular, the Away Team has won three of the last four contests. Moreover, the Road Team is 6-1-2 ATS in the previous nine meetings. The Colts, in particular, are 4-0-1 ATS in their previous five meetings in Houston.
Ultimately, the weather will not play a factor in this contest because NRG Stadium features a retractable roof. Should the Texans elect to open it up, the temperatures outside are forecasted to be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s with partly cloudy skies.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Indianapolis Colts +5
According to Scores and Odds, presiding metrics show that there is a tremendous edge in taking the points with Indianapolis as the Texans are evaluated as just a one-point favorite compared to their present asking price. Thus, the price here dictates the play, and we step in with a four-point edge out of the gate taking back the points. However, psyche will play a huge factor in this game. It is very well likely that the Colts may have been guilty of looking past a far mediocre Jacksonville team compared to last years’ edition. Indianapolis expected this contest to be a game that could potentially put them in the thick of the AFC South divisional race. Now, they have to fight to keep those glimmering divisional hopes alive. As a result of the outcomes in Week 13, Indianapolis will now need this win to keep their post-season aspirations afloat, let alone any outside hopes of winning the division. Fortunately for the Colts, they know they can play with this red-hot Houston team as the first meeting between the two was a nip-and-tuck affair every step of the way. In fact, Indianapolis trailed by as much as 18, but they just would not go away and forced overtime. Now, they get another crack with a game-plan architected to mirror the second half success they found to rally back. As a result, an upset possibility remains high in this contest, but we are indeed working with an enhanced allotment of points; Thanks to Houston being prone to be overvalued because of their win streak combined with their recent proficiency against the spread. With the public all over the Texans yet again this week, there is tremendous equity in fading the Texans and taking back the lumber in what appears to be a clear-cut overlay.