Indianapolis Colts (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS)
NFL Week 16
Date/Time: December 23, 2012. 1:00 p.m. EST.
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS
by Wilson, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Ind -7/KC +7
Over/Under Total: 41.5
The Indianapolis Colts are hoping rookie QB Andrew Luck can rebound from last week’s loss to the Houston Texans 29-17. Indy is just one win away from securing a Wild Card spot and advancing into the playoffs. The Texans snapped the Colts three-game winning streak but the Colts helped them do it by turning the ball over on the 1-yard line and allowing a blocked punt return for a TD. Andrew Luck has more yards, completions, and touchdowns than KC’s Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn combined. Luck has completed 308 of his 564 attempts for 3978 yards and 20 TDs. For a rookie Luck is proving why he belongs in the NFL-he’s good. Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs the Colts have a lot more riding on this game, even though it’s in KC which should motivate the Chiefs to perform it will likely be a Colt’s victory.
Kansas City is out of any possible playoff scenario with just the two wins under their war-paint. The Chiefs lose the matchup in 2 of 3 major areas: total yards and passing yards. However, the Chiefs do average more on the ground than the Colts as KC rushes for 139 per game to Indy’s 107. Offensively, the Colts edge out the Chiefs especially where it matters most-on the scoreboard-Indy puts up 22.1 points per game to KC’s 13.
Andrew Luck throws the ball a lot more than Quinn or Cassel when he was playing, by nearly two hundred attempts more but then again he has Reggie Wayne as a target. Colt’s WR Wayne has 97 receptions on the season for over 1200 yards and 4 TDs. The Chiefs announced earlier this week that Quinn may not play as he injured his ribs in the loss to the Raiders last week. Backup-backup QB Ricky Stanzi might get the start if Quinn can’t go. Stanzi is a second year pro out of Iowa where he threw for over 7000 yards and 56 TDs. But Stanzi has never seen regular season action in his two years on the squad; that can be big trouble or we may get to witness a star in the making. Most think Stanzi will be better served if he keeps the clipboard in his hand on the sidelines. Update: Brady Quinn to start)
Defensively, the Chiefs matchup on paper pretty well but their offense can’t seem to get over the hump. Indy actually allows more total yards at 366 per game than KC who gives up 352 ypg. Kansas City will look to establish the run against the Colts early if they have any aspirations of developing a passing game. KC’s D looks to take advantage of a make-shift injured Colts O-line. Andrew Luck has been sacked 37 times this year and has been the recipient of many big-time hits but the rookie keeps coming back for more as he’s rallied the Colts to late-game wins on 6 different occasions-the most for an NFL rookie.
Many believe the Colts should take care of the Chiefs this weekend in the “Show Me” state and send Kansas City on its continuing downward spiral. For most, it is hard to imagine the Chiefs rebounding especially after RB Jamaal Charles was limited to just 10 yards rushing and 18 yards receiving in the Raiders loss last week. If the Colts do not get their 10th and wild card clinching win the masses will be shocked. After all, it appears that this KC team is in shambles and desperately needs an overhaul or a “redo” but that might be a while in the works.
For the Colts the playoffs can arrive via a few scenarios. One, they simply win at Arrowhead or tie. Two, win strength of victory tiebreaker over The Cincinnati Bengals. Finally, the Colts will get into the postseason if the Steelers lose or tie. If they do get their 10th W it will earn them a ticket to the post season. KC will defend the pass well, so look for Luck to make plays with his feet.
Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: If you made Indy a -7 fav. in each of their last games, they would have covered this number ONCE. They simply don’t have the defense to stop NFL teams. While the Chiefs have pretty much sucked and their offense is anemic, Arrowhead Stadium is not a place where a rookie QB comes in and walks out with an easy W. I’ll probably be holding my breath for 3 hours on Sunday, but I’m taking those juicy points and betting Kansas City HARD. If you have the balls to join me, I give you full permission to smoke 5 cigars all at once after this one is over because you’ll have deserved it after making this balzy wager! I’ll see YOU at the cashiers cage! I’ll be the guy sprinting out of the book with a suitcause full of Benjamin Franklins!
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