Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Pick 9/29/19

by | Sep 25, 2019 | nfl

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 4:25 PM ET

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium – Denver, CO


Point Spread: JAX +3 / DEN -3

Total: 38.5

Power Ratings: Denver -2

Takeaways From Week Three

The Jaguars step into this match-up on a high note after defeating divisional foe Tennessee at home on Thursday Night Football. Closing as a 1.5-point underdog, the Jags handled the Titans by virtue of a 20-7 margin to earn their first win of the season.

The Broncos remain winless on the year. In their most recent endeavor, Denver would take to the road and fall 27-16 to the Green Bay Packers, last Sunday. The Broncos closed as a seven-point underdog and subsequently could not come in under the number. Denver has covered just four times over their previous ten markets.

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How the Public is Betting the Jacksonville- Denver Game

Right now, we have seen the public more or less go right down the middle on this one as only 51% of the consensus fancy the Broncos in this spot. As a result, we have yet to see any line movements take shape.

The Historicals

These two parties have split the last four meetings with two wins per side. The previous collision between Jacksonville and Denver occurred in December of 2016 when the Broncos traveled to the Sunshine State to square off with the Jags. Closing as a 3.5-point favorite, Denver would go on to defeat the Jaguars 20-10 to end Jacksonville’s four-game cover streak in the series.

Betting Trends

There are three betting trends which hard-sell the Jaguars in this spot but also make them prone to be overvalued as a result. First, the Jags themselves are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between both sides. Secondly, the Road Team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the previous six meetings. Finally, the Underdog, in particular, has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven matches between Jacksonville and Denver. All three of these narratives will influence and likely steer action toward Jacksonville. As a result, all of these trends will also position the home favorite Denver to be strongly undervalued.

Injury Concerns

The most notable injury for either team comes from the Jacksonville camp as they will be without Quarterback Nick Foles who was placed on the Injury Reserve due to a broken left clavicle. Rookie Quarterback Gardner Minshew has emerged as some of what of a folk hero. “Minshew Mania” would continue to grow after he carried the Jags to their first win over Tennessee, last Thursday. Star Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is also listed as day-to-day for Jacksonville as he is battling an illness. Ramsey’s availability remains up in the air for this AFC match-up.

Why We Like The Broncos To Cover

The last time the Broncos were at home, they were left a very bitter taste in their mouth. Two weeks ago, Denver hosted the Chicago Bears and came up short in a 16-14 heart-breaker. The circumstances that surrounded this result provided all in attendance and those that watched with one of the most bizarre endings you will ever see in a football game. After trailing for most of the game, the Broncos would find the end zone with just: 31 seconds left. Denver would miss the PAT attempt but it would turn out that the Bears were off-sides. As a result, the Broncos went for the win and converted on a two-point attempt to take a 14-13 lead. Then, things got really crazy. Broncos defender Bradley Chubb would be flagged for a very controversial roughing the passer penalty which set up Bears Kicker Eddie Piniero with a chance to win the game on a 53-yard field goal attempt. Piniero would connect, and the Bears would escape. In their follow-up at Green Bay last week, it was clear that the Orange Crush were shaking off the dismay and after-shocks of the gut-wrenching loss. However, this week I expect the Broncos and its loyal fan base to use the loss to Chicago as motivational material as this is the first time Denver will be on its own pitch since that bitter defeat.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Denver -3

As a general rule of thumb, Denver has its own distinct blend of home-field advantage. This is from the combination of the elevation and the fact that their fans can be influential in games, as Broncos fans are known to be disruptive to opposing teams. When you add in the heightened motivation for the Broncos to avenge their previous home loss, there are too many variables working against the Jaguars here. I can foresee this game getting quite nasty if Ramsey is unavailable and Minshew struggles to adapt to the environment; both of which are certainly plausible. The Broncos will win this game by two scores at the minimum, and I urge takers to back the chalk here and lay the field goal with confidence. Make the Broncos a +17 home underdog by placing them into a GIANT 20 point teaser which can be found at Wagerweb! You’ll also receive a healthy 50% cash bonus up to $1000!