Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, October 4, 1:00pm
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, IN
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: JAX +9 / IND -9
Over/Under Total: 47
What if I told you this weekend there was a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts that means the winner takes over the AFC South division lead? Well, it is true. Okay, Okay, I knowcalm down, it is only week four. Yes this is true, but I just like to hype up games that will probably mean nothing in 3-4 weeks. However, you never know though, the NFL can be weird sometimes. Jacksonville and Indianapolis both come in at 1-2. The Colts are coming off their first win of the season and even that win came down to the very end. The Titans scored a touchdown with less than a minute to go and missed a two point conversion that would have sent the game into overtime. Indy held on, but again, as a team they did not look impressive. Jacksonville is coming off a complete beatdown handed to them by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. I wont go into detail, just check the drive summaries and have a good laugh, unless you are a Jaguar fanthen it isnt so funny. Anyhow, Jacksonville will be traveling into Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts, so lets break it down.
The Colts enter as a 9 point home favorite in this game and the over under is set at 47. Jacksonville is 1-2 against the spread this season while the Colts have yet to cover in any of their three games of 2015. I got burned last week bad on the Jaguars, and the Colts for that matter, but oh wellit happens. As of Monday morning, the very early action is showing that 68% of the action is on the Colts to cover the 9 points. It looks like the public thinks that the Colts slide is over and they will get themselves back to their normal ways. We shall see.
At 1-2 and nearly being 0-3, the Colts have been one of the bigger disappointments of the 2015 season. I actually predicted the Colts to win the AFC and so far, that is looking like a bad pick. With that said, it is only week four coming up and things can change quickly. The problem with the Colts this season has been a team thing. You cannot point the finger at one person even though many are acting as if Andrew Luck is the only issue. Do not get me wrong, Luck has looked bad, real bad, but some of that is due to the offensive line and running backs not picking up the blitzes that teams have thrown at Luck all season. In weeks one and two, it was really bad, but against Tennessee this weekend, Luck looked a tad more comfortable later in the game and just maybe now is the time the Colts turn the corner and get back to their winning ways. I will say thisIf the Colts do not win at least 9-10 games this season, I can see a head coach change headed into 2016. To get back in the AFC hunt, first and foremost, the Colts MUST stop turning the ball over. Andrew Luck has already thrown seven interceptions through three games this season. If that trend continues, which I really dont think it will, this will be a long long 2015 for Indy fans. The defense has not looked good, but when your offense is turning the ball over 2-3 times a game, you cannot really place all of the blame on the D. The key to this game is to get back to playing Colts football. Dj vu, I think I said the exact same thing last week, but oh well, I will say it again. Limit turnovers, make plays on defense, and I think the Colts can easily win this game.
I actually praised the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. I said they were a team on the rise and now with a legit QB, that in a few years they could be good. Ouch. Did you see the game this past weekend against the Patriots? It was bad, horrible, gross, just plain awful! In a 51-17 loss, the New England Patriots scored on their first nine possessions of the gameyes, NINE STRAIGHT POSSESSIONS! That is crazy. Yes, the Patriots are on a mission to shut up the haters, but Jacksonville has to do better to have any shot to even win 4 games this season. That was just plain poor and to me it showed that we have a team on our hands that gives up. Okay, so how does Jacksonville go into Indianapolis and pull the upset, or at least cover this 9 point spread? First and foremost, play some defense. Take a page out of the Jets and Bills book and blitz, blitz, blitz. The only way the Jags have a chance to win this game is to force Andrew Luck to continue to turn the ball over. Not only that, but Jacksonville needs to get some drives themselves. Long, time consuming drives, that end with points is a major must. If you let the Colts get into the mid 20s or 30s, it could be a long day for Jacksonville.
Well, we have a battle of two teams that burned me last weekend. Jacksonville decided not to show up in New England while the Colts decided to wait til late in the 2nd half to do their thing. Now I have to decide on a 9 point spread between two teams I do not trust. Here is my take on this one. The Colts have goals this season. Indy has the roster and the QB that could potentially win the AFC. Jacksonville showed me last week that they are trying to beat St Louis as the team that will move to Los Angeles. If the Colts can jump out early at home, I can see a 31-17 type win for Andrew Luck and the Colts. I will go that way. I hate taking such a huge fave, but I will.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS MINUS THE NINE POINTS!
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