Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. New York Giants (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 28, 2010, New Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Jaguars +7.5/Giants -7.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. A team that many pegged before the season and early in the season as one of the worst teams in the AFC is now tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the division lead in the AFC South.
After a two-game losing streak to put them at 3-4, the Jaguars have won three games in a row over the Cowboys, Texans and Browns. And it’s mainly due to the running of Maurice Jones-Drew, who has at least 100 rushing yards in each of the last three games. He has 878 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns for the season. Also, wide receiver Mike Thomas has a receiving touchdown in each of the last three games. With the inconsistency and now injury of Mike Sims-Walker, the Jaguars needed another receiver other than tight end Marcedes Lewis, who is having a career year, to step up, and Thomas has been that guy lately. Thomas has 46 receptions for 572 yards and three touchdowns for the season.
The New York Giants were tied for the NFC East division lead with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but they lost to the Eagles on Sunday night. Now, the Giants are a game back and need to get back on the winning track to catch up to the Eagles. The Giants started off 6-2 but they have lost two straight now to the Cowboys and Eagles.
After three 100-yard rushing games in a four-game stretch helped the Giants win five games in a row, Ahmad Bradshaw has slowed down over the last three games with a combined 159 yards in those three games. After totaling 153 rushing yards in two straight games, both of which were wins, Brandon Jacobs has just 27 yards in the last two games. The Giants are at their best when Bradshaw and Jacobs are both running well, but they certainly need at least one of them. If both of them are struggling, then the Giants are in trouble.
In the Giants’ 27-17 loss to the Eagles, the Giants led 17-16 in the fourth quarter after a 5-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Derek Hagan. But the Eagles came back with a 50-yard rushing touchdown by LeSean McCoy that almost was a fumbled snap by quarterback Michael Vick. The Giants still had a chance to tie it up when Eli Manning ran for a first down on fourth down, but Manning dove head-first to the ground and fumbled the ball without being touched. The Eagles picked up the fumbled and clinched the win with a David Akers field goal.
Manning was 20-for-33 passing for 147 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Hakeem Nicks had six receptions for 65 yards. The Giants played solid defense but they turned the ball over five times. It’s tough to win games like that.
The Jaguars won 24-20 over the Browns last week. David Garrard was 20-for-34 passing for 254 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Jones-Drew ran for 133 yards and a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 87 yards. Jones-Drew had two turnovers, a lost fumble and an interception on a trick play. The Jaguars had six turnovers but still won the game somehow. They held Browns RB Peyton Hillis to 48 rushing yards.
The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The Jags are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four games overall and 5-0 in their last five road games. The over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five games overall.
Ryno’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Jackonsville just doesn’t get any respect. The Jags have won their last 5 games that Garrard has started and finished and face a Giants teams with key injuries to their wide receiving corp. The Jaguars weakness is their pass defense and with the injuries to WRs S. Smith and H. Nicks New York is unlikely to exploit Jacksonvilles secondary.
Take the Jaguars minus the points.