Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
Saturday, August 15, 2026
4:00 PM ET, Caesars Superdome
This is one of the cleanest Unders of the entire Week 1 preseason board, and both head coaches have told us why.
The Saints are at home as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 36.5. Both those numbers have moved sharply from the openers. The Jaguars opened as 1.5-point favorites, and the line has fully flipped — Saints are now 1.5-point favorites at home, a three-point swing toward New Orleans. The total dropped from 38.5 to 36.5 during the same window. That’s aligned sharp movement in two directions, and once you look at the reporting from both training camps, the reasoning is obvious.
Let’s start with the confirmations.
Liam Coen was asked directly this week whether his starters would play in the preseason opener. His response, on the record: “No. Not in Week 1, for sure.” That includes Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the veteran core that just came off a 13-4 season and an AFC South title. Coen was hired in January 2025 and just finished the greatest debut season by any rookie head coach in the modern era, so he’s earned the right to run preseason exactly the way he wants to. He’s running it by using the joint practices for veteran reps and the game itself for roster evaluation.
Kellen Moore, in his first year as the Saints head coach after coming over from the Eagles, indicated on Wednesday that his starters will also sit. Moore has a roster with heavy depth at wide receiver and running back — 18 players between the two position groups according to reporting from New Orleans — and he needs the preseason snaps to figure out who fills the back end of his 53-man roster. He’s not going to burn any of those evaluation reps on his veterans.
Both teams held a joint practice on Thursday, August 13, at the Saints’ facility in Metairie. That’s the critical layer here. When two teams practice together in a controlled environment 48 hours before a preseason game, the starters get their actual competitive work done during the practice sessions. Coen himself explained the philosophy: “It’s a controlled environment that you’re still getting physical work, but you’re thudding; you’re not tackling to the ground. Not as many blind shots and hits that guys maybe are not going to see.” Translation: the joint practice is where the veterans got their reps against real opposition. The game itself is essentially the fourth-string scrimmage.
That’s not a spot where you’re getting 40 points.
The personnel picture backs it up. The Jaguars are expected to give Carter Bradley extended reps at quarterback. New Orleans will be cycling through backup arms with Kellen Moore evaluating for the final 53. Both teams’ offensive playcalling is going to be vanilla — no motion, minimal shifts, base concepts designed to see how young players execute. That’s a formula for stalled drives and short possessions, not a track meet.
Add one more layer. The Saints scored just 8 offensive touchdowns in Goal-to-Go situations during the 2025 regular season, which was the fewest in the entire NFL. Their offense had a hard time punching it in even with their starters last year. Now their backups are getting the reps against a Jaguars defense running vanilla schemes in a preseason opener. Getting to the end zone repeatedly is not going to be easy for either offense.
I looked at the side too. Saints -1.5 at home with a healthy roster to sort through is defensible, but preseason spreads that small can flip on a single garbage-time possession. The total is where the market has been moving and where the situational factors line up cleanest. When both head coaches publicly confirm their starters won’t play, and the total drops two points before kickoff, the sharp money is telling you exactly what’s going to happen.
The Pick: Jaguars/Saints Under 36.5
