The Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) travel to State Farm Stadium to face the Arizona Cardinals (0-0) in this week’s NFL Preseason opener. While wins and losses may not count for much in August, this matchup offers critical insights into depth charts, coaching strategies, and player momentum. With Patrick Mahomes expected to see limited action and the Cardinals’ revamped defense looking to establish its identity, several betting angles are worth exploring here.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cardinals +3.5 ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Jason Brownlee Over 34.5 Receiving Yards ★★★★★
- Value Play: Under 37.5 Total Points ★★★☆☆
Chiefs vs Cardinals Betting Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Chiefs | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -170 | +150 |
| Point Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 37.5 (-110) | Under 37.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Chiefs -3, Total 36.5
Sharp Money Breakdown: Where the Smart Bets Are Going
When this line opened at Chiefs -3, Total 36.5, I anticipated movement — and we got it. The adjustment to -3.5 reflects early action on Kansas City, likely due to their track record of preseason success under Andy Reid (45-38-1 lifetime preseason record). The total has also ticked up slightly, indicating expectations for decent offensive execution despite both teams likely sitting many starters. Most professionals aren’t rushing to play either side of this game, but there’s been consistent under money since the bump to 37.5, suggesting sharps see value on the defensive side.
Quarterback Matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs Kyler Murray – Who Has the Edge?
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
- Likely to play just one series at most, if at all
- Focus will be on evaluating backups Chris Oladokun and Carson Wentz
- Has looked sharp in training camp according to reports
Cardinals: Kyler Murray
- Expected to play a series or two to build chemistry with new offensive weapons
- Will be without top WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. (knee) and Michael Wilson (concussion)
- Has shown improved mobility in practice, fully recovered from 2023 injuries
QB Edge: Cardinals get the slight edge as Murray is more likely to play meaningful snaps, though this game will mostly feature backups.
Defense Comparison: Which Unit Will Step Up?
The Cardinals have completely overhauled their defensive front, adding veterans Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Josh Sweat. Rookie Will Johnson has been a standout at cornerback in camp, making interceptions and forcing contested catches. Arizona will be eager to establish their defensive identity early.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defensive depth remains a strength, with their secondary showing well in training camp. Veterans Mike Edwards and Deon Bush will be looking to solidify roster spots, while rookie defensive linemen will get their first chance to impress in real game action. Both teams will rely heavily on their depth players, with the Cardinals having slightly more to prove defensively after ranking 20th in yards allowed last season.
Key Betting Trends & Team Stats You Should Know
- Andy Reid has historically taken preseason games seriously, with the Chiefs going 6-3 in preseason openers since 2017
- The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 preseason games as home underdogs
- Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon went 2-1 in preseason games last year in his first season as head coach
- The Under is 8-2 in Kansas City’s last 10 preseason road games
- Both teams’ second and third-string quarterbacks have struggled with turnovers in training camp
Jason Brownlee: Chiefs WR Looking to Capitalize on Opportunity
With Rashee Rice facing a likely suspension and limited WR depth in Kansas City, Jason Brownlee has been turning heads in training camp. The former undrafted free agent from Southern Miss spent time with the Jets before joining Kansas City’s practice squad during their Super Bowl run last season. Coach Andy Reid specifically mentioned Brownlee’s impressive high-point catches during recent practices, and he’s competing directly with Tyquan Thornton for one of the final receiver spots. This preseason opener represents a massive opportunity for Brownlee to showcase his skills against live competition.
State Farm Stadium Factor: What to Expect on Game Day
State Farm Stadium typically provides a controlled environment with its retractable roof, eliminating weather concerns. The Cardinals have historically used preseason home games to establish an identity and build confidence. With a revamped defensive line and several position battles ongoing, expect Arizona to treat this opener with importance. The crowd will likely be enthusiastic early but thin out as the game progresses into backup territory. Look for both teams to use the clean playing surface to evaluate skill position players in space.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Chiefs vs Cardinals
Primary Play: Cardinals +3.5
The Cardinals should have the motivation edge in this matchup as Jonathan Gannon continues building his program in year two. With more starters likely to see action for Arizona than Kansas City, they should build an early lead. Even if that evaporates later, the 3.5-point cushion provides enough value for the home team to cover. Reid historically gives his backups extensive playing time in preseason openers, so expect a lot of Carson Wentz and Chris Oladokun against an Arizona defense eager to make a statement.
Strong Value Play: Under 37.5 Total Points
Preseason openers typically feature conservative play-calling and vanilla schemes. With both teams working in new offensive pieces and focusing on evaluation rather than scoring, expect a lower-scoring affair. The Cardinals will be without their top receivers, and the Chiefs will likely give extended looks to their younger running backs. The slight line movement up from 36.5 has created value on the under.
Worth Considering: Jason Brownlee Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Brownlee has been generating buzz in Chiefs camp and should see extensive playing time as the team evaluates their wide receiver depth chart. Given the uncertainty at the position and Brownlee’s performance in practice, expect Kansas City to target him frequently across multiple quarters. His comfort with the offense after spending the postseason with the team should allow him to showcase his abilities against Arizona’s backup corners.
Top Player Props for Chiefs vs Cardinals
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brownlee (KC) | Over 34.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | ★★★★★ |
| Tyquan Thornton (KC) | Anytime Touchdown | +300 | ★★★★☆ |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | Over 28.5 Rushing Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Carson Wentz (KC) | Over 1.5 TD Passes | +175 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals’ Motivation Edge Makes Them Live Home Dogs
Preseason games often come down to coaching philosophy, depth, and motivation. The Cardinals have much more to prove in their second year under Jonathan Gannon, with several position battles still undecided. Arizona’s revamped defensive line will be eager to make an impression, while their offensive playmakers should benefit from Kyler Murray getting at least some work. The Chiefs have less urgency and will likely rest most key starters after a series or two at the most.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Chiefs 17
