Kansas City Chiefs (3-11 5-9 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5 7-7 ATS) Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Week 16 NFL, 1 PM EST Sunday December 27, 2009 on CBS
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Chiefs -14 / Bengals +14
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 4 games in a row and the only thing they have to look forward to is playing spoiler in this game and another high draft pick. The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a tough loss to the San Diego Chargers, but they are still in the driver’s season in the AFC North and if they win this game they will win the division crown.
This is not a good match up for the Chiefs, as they have the league’s 27th ranked offense and they will be facing a Bengals’ D than ranks 5th in the league. However, the Chiefs did blow up on offense scoring 34 points last week, but that was against the Browns. The Chiefs only have 3 wins this season and they have not beaten a team that currently has a winning record.
Carson Palmer looked great in the loss to the Chargers and if he plays like that again in this game the Chiefs will be cooked.
This season the Bengals are 5-2 at home and the Chiefs are 2-4 on the road.
In their last game the Chiefs lost a barnburner 41-34 to the Cleveland Browns. In the game the Chiefs dominated in the pass game out-gaining the Browns 323 yards to 66 yards, but the Browns killed the Chiefs on the ground with 351 rushing yards. The special teams defense killed the Chiefs, as they allowed Joshua Cribbs to run back t kicks for TD’s. The Browns also had 3 turnovers, but they had the ball almost 10 minutes more than the Chiefs did. The Chiefs were favored by 2.5 points so they did not cover and the posted total of 38.5 was easily surpassed.
The Bengals lost a tough game 27-24 to the Chargers in San Diego on Sunday. The Bengals only had 3 fewer passing yards than the Chargers, but they out-gained them on the ground 114 yards to 70 yards and they had fewer turnovers (2 to 1), but they were penalized 9 times for 55 yards and that hurt them. They could also not stop the Chargers from marching down the field in the last minute, which allowed San Diego to kick a game winning FG with only seconds remaining. The Bengals were underdogs by 7 points so they covered the spread and the posted total of 44 was surpassed.
One of the reasons the Bengals have been so good this year in the play of RB Cedric Benson. Benson will have a HUGE game against the Chiefs, as last week KC allowed 351 rushing yards and overall their rush defense ranks dead last in the league giving up an average of 162 yards per game.
Palmer will also put up some good numbers against a Chiefs’ secondary that is giving up an average of 224.9 passing yards per game.
The Bengals’ defense is solid against the run and the pass and they will keep the Chiefs from putting up a lot of points on the board.
The Bengals have 33 sacks this season and they will add to that total in this game against a Chiefs’ offensive line that has given up the 2nd most sacks this season (44).
Matt Cassel will struggle in this game, as he will be under pressure all day from the Bengals front line D.
Cassel will not get much help from the running game, as they are only averaging 106 yards per game and the Bengals’ run defense is holding opponents to an average of only 99 yards per game.
Look for Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco to have a great game against a weak Chiefs’ secondary.
The only way the Chiefs can win is if they get into a shootout, but the Bengals’ defense will make sure that does not happen.
Jason’s Pick: The Bengals are much better than the Chiefs on both sides of the ball and they are at home so do not look for the upset in this game. The Chiefs will be dominated in this game, as Palmer and Benson should have no problems moving the chains and lighting up the scoreboard. The Bengals want to wrap up the AFC North and they will do it in this game, as they will easily win and cover the 14-point spread.