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Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick.
Kansas City Chiefs(2-10SU,5-7ATS) vs.Cleveland Browns(4-8SU, 7-4-1ATS)
Date/Time:December9th, 1:00PM EST
Where:Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: KC+5.5/CLE-5.5
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The Kansas CityChiefs are coming off an emotional win last week after thetragedythat took over this football team last week. TheydefeatedCarolina 27-21 as 5.5-point home dogs. It wasn’t easy as the Panthers out-gained theChiefsby 30 yards. Kansas City is 4-6 ITS (in the stats) in their last 10 games.The Cleveland Browns won their second straight game after defeating the Oakland Raiders 20-17, as 1-point home chalk. The Browns out-gained Oakland by 46 yards and are now 2-8 ITS over their last 10 games.
The first thing I said to myself when I saw this match-up was, “Will the KC Chiefs be able to match the high-emotion they played with last week”? It will be tough considering they have never traveled well. The Chiefs are 66-104 SU and 83-84 ATSon the roadsince 1993. I was shocked to see that the Chiefs have the better pass defense and overall defense. Kansas City allows just 220 passing yards compared to 252 for the Brownies. Overall, the Chiefs defense allows 349 yards while theBrownsaresurrendering368 yards per contest.
The eye test tells me that both teams are very similar on the stop side. Kansas City also has the better offense gaining about 20 yards more per game than Cleveland. If the Chiefs own better stats why do they have two less wins than Cleveland? The answer is pretty simple and you probably already know what I am about to say. Scoring. Or lack of it. The last time I checked the Chiefs were ranked last in Red-Zoneefficiencywhile the Browns were 10spots ahead. It makes sense since the Browns average alittlemore than 3 points per game. In the NFL that does equal two more wins.
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With that said it sure does seem that this line is too high. The Browns have been installed as underdogs in all but one game this season. That one game was last week. Cleveland will enter this gameas the biggest home favorite so far this season. Looking at the remainder of the schedule (Wash, DEN, PITT) tells me they wont be installed asfavorites until some time next season, if at all. I wanted to see the last time Cleveland was a favorite at home and the results are not shocking. The first game of the 2011 season against the Bengals at Cleveland BrownStadiumsaw the Bengals win out-right as 6.5-point underdogs. Than on 11/13/11 the Rams defeated the Browns in Cleveland 13-12, as 3-point underdogs. Looking long range the Browns are 9-13 SU and 8-13-1 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.History says the Browns won’t cover this spread.
Heavy money has been coming in on the Browns ever since this line was posted on Sunday night. I think most wise guys and squares are banking in the fact the Chiefs will suffer a huge let-down after last week’s emotional victory. Also, KC is -41 net yards per game since Week 7 out while the Browns are +53over the same time span.Who knows what this team has gone through and will continue to enduregoing forward. It has to be a very difficultsituationright now.My heart and prayers go out to the family and the entireChiefsorganization.
These two teams have played onlyfive times since 2002. Kansas City is 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. In 2010, the Chiefs won 16-14 as 3-point road dogs. The Underdoghas gone4-1 in the previous five meetings. The Over is 4-1 as well. The Chiefs are 1-5 SU and 4-2 ATSagainstthe AFC North over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 19-12 as an Underdog of any kind over the last three seasons. Theycertainlyknow the role well.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs +5.5
I had this game circled ever since BradyQuinn was named the Chiefs starter. RomeoCrenneland Quinn alsohad this game circled for some time, but last week’stragedy will keep me from making this a hugeservice play. I just don’t know how the Chiefs will react after last week’s rare victory. With that said, I still think this line is too high.
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