Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds and Pick to Cover the Point Spread

Note: If you’re looking for the 2013 Week 7 matchup
between these teams, please go here: Houston
Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (3-1 SU,3-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS), Week6 NFL, Sunday October 17, 1:00 PM Eastern,Reliant Stadium (Field Turf), Houston Texas
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com

Betting Odds: KC +5/Hou -5
Over/Under Total: 44

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The Kansas City Chiefs will try to get back on the winningtrack against the struggling Houston Texans in this week six matchup at Reliant Stadium. After staring the season 2-0, the Texans have lost two out of their last three games in blowout fashion. Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season last week as their offense was missing in action against the Colts’ nicked up defense.

Kansas City lost 19-9, as 7-point road dogs. Matt Cassel threw for a mere 156 yards on 16-of-29 passes for the Chiefs, who were trying for their first 4-0 start since 2003. Jamaal Charlesaccumulated 87 yards on 16 carries and alsolost a fumble in the setback. But, it was a lack of moving the chains that cost KC a chance at the upset. The Chiefs went 1-for-10 on third-down conversions, compared to 8-for-17 for the Colts. The streak continues for the Chiefs. Kansas City has never won in Indianapolis and hasn’t won a road game of any kind in the series since avictory in Baltimore over 30 years ago.

The Texans were dominated by the New York Giants defense losing 34-10, as 3-point home favorites. Houston, theleague’s top-ranked rushing unit, struggled mightily against the Giants’ active front seven. The Texans, who entered the game as the league’s top-ranked rushing team, were held to a franchise-low 24 yards on the ground. They also were putrid on defense and special teams.

Houstonran four plays for negative yards and mustered only two first downs in the first quarter. At one point, three Giants knocked down Schaub in the end zone after another incompletion, prompting boos from the sellout crowd. The 34-points scored were the most for the Giants since Week 15 of last season, and the Giants had not won back-to-back games since Week 4 and 5 of last season.

Both teams come into this contest ranked in the Top 10 at stopping the run. That’s key because both of these teams are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in rushing yards.The Chiefs only allow 80.5 rushing yards per game, while the Texans only allow 79.6 rushing yards. Teams love to throw on the Texans’ secondary, considering Houston has the NFL’s worst pass defense giving up 330 yards through the air.

Matt Cassell and company willlook to run the ball first and pass second. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are averaging 149 yards combined for the league’s top ranked rushing team. Houston, the nowsecond-ranked highest rushing team is putting up 142 yards per game.

A big reason for the success that the Chiefs have been enjoying istheir defense and special teams. The Chiefs only allow 14.3 points per game compared to 27.2 for the Texans.Kansas City and Houston made critical special teams mistakes last week so look for both teamsto be much improved in this game. The Chiefs are ranked No.2 on my Special Teams rankings compared to No. 19for Houston. Kansas Citywillenjoya big edge in defense and special teams play in this game.

It’s always scary when a team gives up more points than they score. Houston is averaging 23.6Points For,but 27.2 Points Against. That formula will not win you many games and if they don’t improve on defense quickly, more losses will start adding up. Not even the NFL Defensive Player of the Year could help, asBrian Cushing returned from his 4-game suspension and had little impact in last week’sblowout loss.

These two teams have only playedfour times in their history and each has won twice. In 2007, theTexans won 20-3 as 3-point home favorites. Both teams are quite different in termsof personal and scheme, so don’t expect the Chiefs or Texans to be familiar witheach other.

Something has to give. Houston is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
Kansas City is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games overall. Matt Schaub
is 5-12 ATS when his team is favored by more than four points.

Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Kansas City Chiefs +5.

The Chiefs have the better defense and special teams play. Houston is dealing with a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball. Kansas City had a great chance at upsetting the Colts last week. Look for the Chiefs to shut down the Texans’ passinggame and attack their shaky offensive line. Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weisare two of the best coordinators in all of football. I trust them to keep this one close, even though the Chiefs are playing their second straight road game. I just like Underdogs with the better defense!