Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Heinz Field
TV: NBC
by Chad Holloway, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KC +5.5/PIT -5.5
Over/Under Total: 47
Sunday night, Pittsburgh Steelers running back LeVeon Bell will return from a three-game suspension. It couldnt come at a better time as the Steelers are coming off a demoralizing 3-34 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, a game in which it became apparent the team is suffering from a depleted receiving corps.
Sure, the Steelers have Antonio Brown, but who else? Martavis Bryant is suspended for the season, Eli Rogers is sporting a walking boot, and Markus Wheatons return from a shoulder injury, which included three dropped passes, was lackluster. Bells return will not only energize the fan base; it will boost their passing game as the back is more than capable of garnering receptions out of the backfield.
For example, when Bell returned from a two-game suspension last year, he rushed 19 times for 62 yards and a touchdown, as well as caught seven passes for 70 yards, against the then St. Louis Rams. According to Fantasy Data, he played 95% of the teams offensive snaps in that game. Hell likely do the same in Sunday nights return as DeAngelo Williams, who did a solid job starting the first three weeks, takes his rightful place as backup.
Right now, the Steelers are ranked 21st in offense with an average of 354 total yards per game (YPG) and 21.7 points per game (PPG). Their run game is 18th in the league averaging 100 YPG, while their passing game is 14th at 254 YPG. Defensively, the Steelers languish toward the back of the pack as theyre 27th allowing a hefty 407.3 total YPG (332 passing YPG; 75.3 rushing YPG).
As for the Kansas City Chiefs, their offense is ranked 23rd overall with an average of 332.3 YPG. Their run game is 21st at 91.3 YPG, and their passing game is 22nd with 241 YPG. Defensively, the Chiefs allow an average of 348 total YPG 225 passing YPG; 123 rushing YPG) which puts them in a respectable 11th place.
The Chiefs are coming off a win in which they steamrolled the New York Jets 24-3. In that game, the Chiefs forced an astounding eight turnovers including two picks from Marcus Peters and a pick-six from Derrick Johnson. It was an impressive performance, but chances are things wont be so easy on the road in Pittsburgh.
Chad Holloway’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: When these two teams last met in October of last year, the Chiefs walked away with a 23-13 victory. With both teams second in their respective divisions at 2-1, this one could have big implications in the AFC Playoff race. Itll definitely be a game worthy of primetime coverage, and I think its going to be a close one. The Chiefs have momentum and are coming off a confidence-building win, while the Steelers look to bounce back from their embarrassing loss with a shot in the arm by Bells return.
Straight up, I can see the game going either way, but I really like the +5.5 cushion for the Chiefs. As for the O/U, I expect the two teams will combine for 4-5 touchdowns and maybe a few field goals, which should prove entertaining but wont cover the over. Bet the Chiefs and the under.
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