Kansas City Chiefs(11-4SU,9-4 ATS) vs. San Diego Chargers(8-7SU,9-5-1 ATS)
NFL Week 17
Date and Time: December 29th, 4:25 PM E
Where: Qualcomn Stadium
TV: CBS (Local)
by JeffHochman, Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:KC +9.5/SD -9.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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The San Diego Chargers will look to complete the season sweep for the second consecutive season, when they host theplayoff-bound Kansas CityChiefs in the final regular season game for both teams. It wasaboutone month ago when the Chargers defeated the Chiefs 41-38 as 4-point road underdogs. In that game the Chargers outgained Kansas City 491-395. The Chargers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS L10against the Chiefs. This will be second highest line for the home team against the Chiefs. They did covera 14-point spread back in 2009, winning 43-14. Kansas City lost 23-7 as 8-point home chalk last week and you can bet Andy Reid was not a happy camper in practice all week. His teams have a great history of bouncing back after a blowout loss. Even though theymight be resting a lot of starters, I would be shocked if this game is decided by more than 7 points. The Chargers are not the healthiest of teams right now, and giving 9.5 points to your rival who is coming off a bad loss seems like a classic overlay to me.
It is true that the Chargers need to win this game while the Chiefs are just looking to gain somemomentumheading into the postseason. But, the Chargers need some help too. They need losses or ties from both Miami and Baltimore to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The Chiefs are pumped up for this game and they would like nothing better than to put an end to the Chargers winning streak and a possible playoff birth. I think the key will be Jamaal Charles early and often. In the first meeting, Charles had 115 rushing yards on just 14 carries, and two touchdowns. Give him the rock 25 times and who knows what kind of numbers he will have. Look for a lot of screen plays as the Chargers are one of the worst NFL teams at defending screens this season. The Chiefs defense was much better in the first half of the season. The offense has struggled too as the Chiefs are just 2-8 ITS (in the stats) in their last 10 games. The Chargers are 7-3 ITS in their last 10 games. Even though the Chargers have the better stats of late, this game has the feel of a closer game than most experts are predicting.
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The Chiefs have the No. 1 Special Teams unit in the NFLaccordingto Football Outsiders. That’s huge when getting close to 10 points.The Chargers are ranked No. 15. Two good offensive lines will go head-to-head in this game as the Chiefs are ranked No. 2 while the home Chargers are ranked No. 4. Here is the big advantage for the underdog Chiefs. Kansas City’sDefensive line is ranked No. 6 while the Chargers D-lineis ranked No. 32. The chiefs are ranked 9th in rushing, averaging 27 points per game and only allow 19 points per game. If theChiefscome to play (and I think they will) this should be a close game.
I reallybelieveBaltimore and/or Miami will win, and than this game will mean nothing for the Chargers. It will still mean something for the Chiefs. This line will be heading down, so if you like the underdog in this game, I would get downASAP.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Kansas City Chiefs +9.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-1 ATS on the road this season. Take the road dog in this classic overlay!