Miami Dolphins Regular Season Wins Prediction
Here’s the follow-up for my August 10th article on an alternative handicapping tool for betting on Regular Season Win Totals.
In summary from the article, the past two seasons, all divisions, 14 of 16 last place teams have come in Under their Regular Season Wins total.
So all you have to do is figure out who’s going to finish in last place, bet the Under, and you’ve got a good chance of winning your bet.
Yes, as Captain Obvious would say, if a team finishes in last place it means they stink and will probably come in Under their Regular Season Wins, but you still have to figure out WHICH teams will finish last and WHICH of the eight losers gives you the best odds of winning your Under wager.
I’ve used this handicapping model to pick the New York Giants the last two seasons in a row, and won both bets, but for reasons mentioned in the previous article I’m not going back to the Giants for a third time.
For this year’s Biggest Loser bet I’m turning to the AFC East and zeroing in on the Miami Dolphins.
While trying to identify which team will come in last in the East we can easily eliminate Buffalo and New England.
You need a quality, proven quarterback to win in the NFL and the Bills and Pats have Allen and Maye.
The Jets brought in Geno Smith (because they obviously didn’t watch any of the Raiders games last season) and the Dolphins have Malik Willis.
I picked the Jets to finish above the Dolphins, and the books agree as they have New York at 5′ Regular Season Wins and Miami at 4′.
This will be Willis’ third team in four years, which begs the simple question – if he was any good would he keep being traded?
His record as a starter in the NFL is 3-3.
Three teams in 4 years and only three wins as a starter – I want to know who in the Dolphins front office looked at Willis and said, “Yeah, THIS is the guy I want starting at QB for us this season!”
I guess when your other two QBs are Quinn Ewers (who went 1-2 as the starter in the last three games of 2025) and Cam Miller (rookie from an FCS school) suddenly Willis becomes palpable.
ESPN early season rankings for toughness of schedule has Miami with the second most difficult schedule (they rate the Bears with the toughest schedule.)
Sharp Analysis also rates Miami’s schedule as being the second toughest in the league, with only Arizona having it worse.
The Dolphin’s face a very difficult group of opponents in the final third of the season – all six of them made the playoffs in 2025.
This means if the Dolphins are going to get more than 4′ wins they need to get off to a good start, but they have a new head coach and a bunch of new players, which means there’ll be no cohesion in the early part of the season as it takes time for the offense to gel.
And it’s not going to help that three of their first four games are on the road.
Digging deeper into the schedule, I see the AFC East drew the NFC North for their out of conference opponents. The NFC North finished with the second most wins last season, behind only the NFC West. It was also the only division in the NFL where every team had a winning record, so Miami couldn’t have drawn a tougher division to face.
Aside from the NFC North, they also drew an NFC Rd game at San Fran.
I went up and down the Dolphin’s schedule marking a green ink W next to games I think they could win, a red ink L next to the teams I thought they would lose to, and a black ink P for toss-ups.
The results?
I’m going to need a new red pen soon as I’m running out of ink.
Tallied up, I see 13 L’s, 3 P’s, and just 1 W.
I have them at 0-4 right out of the gate.
The only game that looks possibly winnable in the first quarter of the season is Week One at Vegas, but with positive changes at head coach and quarterback, backed by a raucous Week 1 home crowd, I think the Raiders are the more likely of the two to start the season 1-0, but I marked Miami’s season opener with a P.
Week Two has the Dolphins facing the 49ers in San Fran. That’s an L, for sure, despite the Niners injuries.
Next up, KC and Minnesota.
That puts them at 0-4, or 1-3 at best case IF they can beat the Raiders.
In their next game, Cincinnati hangs another L on them as long as Joe Boroughs isn’t injured and watching from the sidelines.
That means Week Six may be the first week where they have a chance to win, facing the Jets.
I think they’ll split the season series with the Jets (a W at Hm, an L on the Rd) and with the first game being played at New York, the Dolphins could very well be looking at an 0-6 start to the season.
Next up, New England and Detroit.
Loss, Loss.
I marked the Dolphins with a “P” for a possible win in their next game against the Colts, but the game is in Indy so it’s a toss up.
The next game is at Buffalo, L.
They return home for a game versus the Jets, one that I gave them a W for.
After that, it’s possible they close out the season on an 0-6 run in a brutal stretch of games that features Denver, Chicago, Green Bay, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo and New England (the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots on the Rd.)
As they say, “On any given Sunday” etc, so the Dolphins could pull off a win in there, but it’s unlikely.
Miami has the distinction of being the only team to finish with a perfect record in NFL history.
After this season ends they may find themselves with another perfect record, 0-17.
Odds are that I’m a little off giving them only one win this season, but I’ll have to be off by four games for me to lose my bet.
It’s a little pricey at Un 4′ -135, but I’ll lay the heavy juice because I just don’t see five W’s on their schedule.
My play:
Mia Un 4′ Regular Season Wins
