MNF: Dallas Cowboys at NY Giants Pick ATS

by | Nov 1, 2019 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. New York Giants (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, November 4, 8:15 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Point Spread: Dal -7 / NYG +7 (Intertops)
Over/Under Total: 47.5

The Dallas Cowboys travel to the Big Apple to take on their division rival New York Giants on Monday Night Football to close out the NFL Week 9 slate. 5Dimes has made the Cowboys 7 point road favorites with a total of 47½. It’s hard to lay 7 points on the road in the NFL, but the play here is to take the Cowboys and lay the wood. Here are three reasons.

A Healthy Dallas Team Is a Strong Team

The Cowboys have been on a roller coaster ride this year, winning their first three games, then dropping three games before beating the Eagles in Week 7 before their bye. The three losses all occurred when the team was missing some of their best players. The list of those missing time for Dallas this season primarily between weeks 4 and 6 include wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb, and starting tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. With the whole group suiting up for the Eagles in Week 7 before the bye, Dallas was back at the top of their game. They should all be even healthier for MNF, which is terrible news for the G-Men. Dallas outgained the Eagles by 119 yards, and the game was really over by halftime. A healthy Cowboy offensive line may be the best line in the league and will dominate a Giant defense that has allowed the 3rd most points in the league. Quarterback Dak Prescott has completed over 77% of his passes 3 of the team’s four wins against opponents with secondaries resembling the Giants. On the season, the Giants opponents are completing over 70% of their pass attempts. New York does have 22 sacks on the year, but I would expect Prescott will have time to work behind his O-Line.

The Cowboys boast the 4th best rushing yards per game this season at 146 yards per game and should be able to build on their success against a Giant D that allows 122 yards per game. Ezekiel Elliot leads the way with 602 rushing yards and six touchdowns and has also seen expanded usage in the passing game. The Giants don’t have a linebacker that will have an answer for Elliott, so look for big numbers from Zeke this week. Amari Cooper should also be in line for a big stat day. He has been healthy in 6 games and has averaged over 100 yards in those contests. Prescott will have time to find Cooper and playing against the defense that allows the 8th most passing yards per game, should have success. Janoris Jenkins will try to match up with Cooper, but Cooper should win that battle. New York gave up 316 passing yards last week to the Lions, and we should see a repeat this week. The Giants defense is overmatched by the Cowboy offense when it is healthy, which it will be this week.

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Daniel Jones and the Giant Offense Can’t Keep Up

Daniel Jones has been a typical rookie QB since taking over the starter role in week 3. He has been up and down, showing some hope for Giants fans, but also has moments that remind everyone he is still a rookie. He played well and led the G-Men to wins in weeks 3 and 4 before going on a four-game losing streak against some pretty good competition and with a lot of his skill player hurt. Jones has completed 62% of his passes but has been picked off seven times and fumbled eight times. He has been sacked 21 times, and even though the Cowboys defense is only averaging 2.5 sacks per game, I expect Jones to go down multiple times on Monday. Jones has been able to help himself by running the ball, rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Dallas generally will play a zone, and with some of the fastest linebackers in the league, so I expect Jones running will be probably be limited.

Saquon Barkley is still the focal point of the Giant offense. He missed three games with an ankle sprain and is just approaching being 100%. His stat line has suffered as he has only accumulated 373 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. He regularly contributes in the passing game, and last week caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboy linebackers will have their hands full with Barkley, but Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith are one of the best combos in the league and should be up to the challenge. New York’s receiving crew are still trying to recover from the loss of Odell Beckham Jr. Golden Tate and Sterling Shepherd are filling the void, but neither will have the Cowboys secondary worried this week. They have combined for only 48 catches, with both players playing in only four games so far this year. Tight end Evan Engram is considered the biggest weapon in the passing game, and he leads the team with three receiving touchdowns. The Cowboys will definitely put points on the board so the Giants offense will have to keep up. Before their bye, Dallas held the Eagles to 10 points on under 300 yards. I don’t think Jones and Giant offense can keep pace.

Dallas Has Owned the Giants Recently

Dallas will bring in a five-game winning streak against the G-Men, including Week 1 this year. Three of those wins were by double-digit margins, and one of the others was by 7 points. Dallas is in a dogfight to stay on top of the Eagles in the NFC East so they can’t afford to look past any division foe. The Giants have played four teams so far this year that should make the playoffs – Dallas, New England, Buffalo, and Minnesota and did not cover against any of those teams. The Giants have lost those four games by an average of 16 points. They can’t elevate their play against playoff competition, and won’t be able to stay close in this one.

Lay 7 Points and Take Dallas

Laying 7 points with a road favorite is a little square and generally not a profitable play in NFL gaming, but that is the play this week on Monday Night Football. Line up with the Dallas faithful and play the Cowboys -7.