MNF Picks: Ravens at Saints Total & Spread Predictions
Baltimore Ravens (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)
When: Monday, November 7, 8:15 p.m.
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: BAL -2.5/NO +2.5
Total: O/U 48
Outlook
The biggest question here is who is going to start for New Orleans because if it’s Andy Dalton, the trends suggest backing the Ravens in a big way. Dalton has lost 12 consecutive games that started after 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, and his overall record in prime-time games is just 6-19 for his career, more than earning the name “Afternoon Andy.” The last time Dalton took the field for a prime-time start, it was a night to forget, as Dalton closed the first half with consecutive pick-sixes in a 42-34 loss to the Cardinals.
Meanwhile, Baltimore finally seems to have figured out how to close a game down. The Ravens have actually been at their best away from home for most of the year, as they are 3-1 ATS away from Baltimore and 0-3-1 ATS in Maryland. Against Tampa Bay last week, the Ravens took control in the third quarter and actually closed things out very well, never letting the Buccaneers have a real shot to tie or take the lead. Baltimore should be better at finishing the job, given that the Ravens boast a strong running game, but problems tend to arise from the fact that Lamar Jackson tries to do a little too much with the football. Against the Giants, the game was practically won for the Ravens until Jackson committed two ugly turnovers that opened the door for New York to steal the game. If the Ravens could finish consistently, they’d be leading the AFC and might even be undefeated. As it is, they should get ahead but might have to hang on down the stretch.
How the Public is Betting the Baltimore/New Orleans Game
The public is riding on the Ravens here, but the money is going on the Saints. The Ravens have taken 66% of the tickets, but the spread has dropped from -3 to -2.5. The spread has not changed.
Injury Concerns
Baltimore:
Tight end Charlie Kolar (hernia), guard Ben Cleveland (foot), running back Gus Edwards (hamstring), defensive end Calais Campbell (illness), linebacker Josh Bynes (quadricep), tight end Mark Andrews (shoulder), linebacker Tyus Bowser (Achilles) and linebacker David Ojabo (Achilles) are questionable. Running back J.K. Dobbins (knee), cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis (personal), safety Marcus Williams (wrist), defensive tackle Michael Pierce (bicep), linebacker Josh Ross (foot), linebacker Steven Means (Achilles), tackle JaWuan James (Achilles), cornerback Kyle Fuller (knee) and linebacker Vince Biegel (Achilles) are out.
New Orleans:
Wide receiver Jarvis Landry (ankle), cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdominal), tight end Adam Trautman (ankle), and quarterback Jameis Winston (back) are questionable. Running back Mark Ingram II (knee), wide receiver Michael Thomas (toe), cornerback Bradley Roby (ankle), wide receiver Deonte Harty (toe), cornerback P.J. Williams (quadricep), tackle Trevor Penning (foot), defensive tackle Albert Huggins (leg), offensive lineman Ethan Greenidge (knee), linebacker D’Marco Jackson (undisclosed) and safety Smoke Monday (knee) are out.
When Baltimore Has the Ball
The Ravens’ offense has kind of stagnated in recent weeks, as Baltimore has become a run-heavy offense simply because Lamar Jackson tends to keep the ball and wait for something to develop. When Jackson is able to make a play, Baltimore’s offense can score from anywhere on the field. When the Ravens have to force something, they often run into major problems.
Health has been one of the most significant issues for the Ravens, who haven’t been able to keep a running back healthy. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have combined for just 62 carries on the year because of injuries, forcing the Ravens to turn to Kenyan Drake. Drake’s not a bad back, but he’s not the kind of back you want as y
When New Orleans Has the Ball
For whatever reason, Andy Dalton just does not seem to perform at night. That’s been the knock on him his entire career, and the stats back it up. If he’s ever going to win a game at night, this is the one because Baltimore is really weak against the pass. The Ravens give up 266.8 yards per game through the air and just 97.5 yards per game on the ground, which means that New Orleans probably has to try to do something through the air.
But with Michael Thomas now out, New Orleans is running out of options. Chris Olave is the Saints’ best threat to catch passes, but Thomas has been the threat in the red zone, leading the Saints in receiving touchdowns. New Orleans simply doesn’t have one standout receiving threat, which might lead them to try to use Alvin Kamara as a decoy out of the backfield. Kamara is a good pass catcher, and using the Ravens’ run defense strength against them could give Dalton the time he needs to flip the script.
Betting Trends
The Saints have been poor on Monday and poor at following success, as they’ve failed to cover in four straight Monday games and are 3-9 ATS when coming off an SU win. The Ravens haven’t been great at following success either, as they are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four when coming off an ATS win. Baltimore also has a tendency to play down to its competition, going just 2-6 ATS in its past eight against a team below .500.
For the total, something has to give. The Ravens have played under in four of their past five contests, while the Saints have played four of their past five to the over.
Weather Report
The game will be played indoors in New Orleans.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
Baltimore’s health is a major concern for me, but the fact that Andy Dalton is on the other sideline is a bigger concern. Dalton just doesn’t perform at night, and this small spread isn’t enough for me to take a chance on him finally performing on the big stage against a defense like what the Ravens have shown this year. I’ll take the Under as my main play, but I will back Baltimore versus the number. Bet your Week 10 NFL picks for FREE by scooping up a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
