The New England Patriots (1-0) travel to U.S. Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Vikings (1-0) in this week’s NFL Preseason clash. While wins and losses may not count for much in August, this matchup offers critical insights into depth charts, coaching strategies, and player momentum. With Drake Maye expected to see limited but meaningful action and the Vikings’ defense under Brian Flores presenting a much sterner test than Washington did last week, several betting angles are worth exploring here.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Vikings -3 (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Max Brosmer Over 115.5 Passing Yards (-110) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Under 37.5 Total Points (-110) ★★★☆☆
Patriots vs Vikings Betting Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Patriots | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Point Spread | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| Total | Over 37.5 (-110) | Under 37.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Vikings -2.5, Total 38.5
Sharp Money Breakdown: Where the Smart Bets Are Going
When this line opened at Vikings -2.5, I anticipated some movement toward the home team, and we got it. The adjustment to a full field goal reflects early sharp action on Minnesota, especially after their impressive 20-10 win over Houston last week. The total has ticked down slightly, indicating expectations for defensive dominance in this matchup. Brian Flores’ aggressive defense presents a significant challenge for New England’s young QBs, and the smart money is acknowledging this reality by backing both the Vikings and the Under.
Quarterback Matchup: Drake Maye vs J.J. McCarthy – Who Has the Edge?
Patriots: Drake Maye
- Looked composed in his preseason debut (3/5 for 12 yds, 1 sack)
- Expected to play 1-2 series against a much more complex defensive scheme
- Facing Brian Flores’ notorious blitz packages will be a significant test
Vikings: J.J. McCarthy
- Solid in preseason debut (2/3, 17 yards) but played just one series
- Could see slightly increased workload of 2-3 series this week
- Coaches have praised his growth and processing speed in camp
QB Edge: Even. Both rookies have shown poise, but limited sample sizes make this a wash. The backup battle between Dobbs/Brosmer vs. Howell/Rypien could ultimately decide this game.
Defense Comparison: Which Unit Will Step Up?
The Vikings defense under Brian Flores was one of the NFL’s most aggressive units last season, ranking 2nd in takeaways, 2nd in opponent third-down conversion rate, and 4th in points allowed. Even in preseason, Flores will dial up complex blitz packages to test the Patriots’ young QBs. Minnesota’s front seven, featuring Jonathan Allen and Andrew Van Ginkel, should create significant pressure problems. Meanwhile, New England’s defense looked impressive against Washington last week, generating consistent pressure. The key difference: Minnesota’s scheme is significantly more complex than what Washington showed, giving the Vikings a meaningful edge in this matchup.
Key Betting Trends & Team Stats You Should Know
- The Patriots scored 48 points in their preseason opener against Washington but face a much tougher defensive test here
- Vikings held Houston to just 10 points in their preseason opener
- New England’s offense ranked 31st in yards per game (292.0) and 30th in points per game (17.0) last season
- Minnesota’s defense ranked 4th in points allowed (19.9) and 2nd in takeaways (1.8 per game) last season
- The Patriots are heading into their first road preseason game under new head coach Mike Vrabel
The TreVeyon Henderson Factor: Will Rookie Continue to Shine?
Patriots rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson electrified in his preseason debut, returning a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown and showing explosive ability on his limited offensive touches. Against Minnesota’s sturdy run defense (ranked 2nd last year allowing just 93.2 rushing yards per game), Henderson faces a much more challenging test. How the Patriots utilize him in this matchup will be telling – they’ll likely want to see if his explosiveness translates against stiffer competition. While he may not break another long return, watch for designed plays to get him in space, which could still provide fantasy and prop betting value.
U.S. Bank Stadium Factor: What to Expect on Game Day
U.S. Bank Stadium provides one of the NFL’s most intimidating environments during the regular season, though preseason atmospheres are naturally more subdued. Nevertheless, the indoor conditions should provide ideal circumstances for both offenses to execute their game plans without weather concerns. Joint practices between these teams on Wednesday and Thursday will have already familiarized players with each other, which often leads to crisper execution in preseason games. Given Minnesota’s home-field advantage and the comfort level their QBs will have in their home stadium, expect the Vikings to have a slight edge in execution.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Patriots vs Vikings
Primary Play: Vikings -3 (-110)
Brian Flores’ aggressive defensive scheme will create significant problems for New England’s young quarterbacks. Even in preseason, Flores doesn’t dial back his complex blitz packages, which should generate pressure and potentially turnovers. The Vikings’ defense was elite last season (4th in points allowed) and should continue to be a strength in 2025. Combined with home-field advantage and slightly more settled quarterback play, I expect Minnesota to win by at least a touchdown, making the -3 spread a solid value.
Strong Value Play: Under 37.5 Points (-110)
New England’s offense exploded for 48 points last week, but that came against a Washington defense that offered little resistance. Minnesota’s defense under Flores is a completely different animal – aggressive, complex, and designed to confuse young quarterbacks. The joint practices this week mean defensive coordinators will have even more familiarity with the opposing offense’s tendencies. I expect both defenses to outperform their offensive counterparts, leading to a lower-scoring affair than the market anticipates.
Worth Considering: Patriots Team Total Under 17.5 (-120)
While the Patriots offense looked explosive against Washington, facing Minnesota’s defense is a massive step up in competition. The Vikings held opponents to just 19.9 points per game last season (4th best), and Brian Flores’ aggressive scheme should create problems for Drake Maye and the Patriots’ backup QBs. After studying the tape from New England’s 48-point outburst, Flores will have counters prepared. I expect the Patriots to struggle to move the ball consistently, making their team total under an appealing option.
Top Player Props for Patriots vs Vikings
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Brosmer | Over 115.5 Passing Yards | -110 | ★★★★★ |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Over 32.5 Rushing Yards | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Efton Chism III | Over 3.5 Receptions | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Dallas Turner | Over 0.5 Sacks | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Joshua Dobbs | Under 105.5 Passing Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Patriots’ Offense Faces Reality Check Against Elite Defense
Last week’s 48-point explosion by New England created some unrealistic expectations that are due for correction. While Mike Vrabel has this team playing with intensity and purpose, Brian Flores’ defensive scheme represents a significant challenge that will test the Patriots’ young offensive talent. The joint practices this week will give both teams insight into each other’s tendencies, but that familiarity tends to favor defenses. Expect a lower-scoring, more defensive-oriented contest where Minnesota’s home-field advantage and slightly more settled quarterback situation gives them the edge.
Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Patriots 13
Note: Our projections about who’s playing in preseason are based on the latest updates from beat reporters, coaches, and players. Sometimes, that info changes at the last minute or doesn’t pan out on game day. If you can’t personally confirm who’s suiting up, we recommend keeping your action light—think “beer money” bets only.
