New York Giants (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-1 SU, 0-1
ATS), Week 2 NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST, Sunday Night Football, September 19, 2010, Lucas
Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind., TV: NBC
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG +5.5/Indy -5.5
If you didnt already know that the Manning brothers Peyton and Eli
are both starting quarterbacks in the NFL, Im sure the folks at NBC
are going to bludgeon you with that fact about 100 times during their
Sunday Night Football telecast from Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend,
when Elis New York Giants travel to take on Peytons hometown
Indianapolis Colts in primetime.
For the second time ever, and the first since 2006, the two brothers
will go head-to-head for a little family bragging rights when the G-
men try and stay undefeated against the defending AFC Champion but
currently winless Colts.
The Giants earned a solid but somewhat unspectacular, 31-18, victory
over the Carolina Panthers in their season and new stadium opener
last Sunday, even though it was one of the sloppiest games in the
entire league during opening weekend (nine turnovers in the game).
New York made some great halftime adjustments and scored 17
unanswered points in the final two quarters to walk away winners in
their season debut.
Indianapolis was manhandled by the Houston Texans in their opener,
getting gouged for 257 yards on the ground in a surprising, 34-24,
loss on the road in Houston. Forced to sit and stew while his defense
was playing matador, Peyton Manning had very little time to try and
work any of his magic and the end result was just the franchises
second loss ever to the AFC South rival Texans.
Oddsmakers out in Las Vegas were listing the Colts as 5.5-point
favorites earlier in the week, but that number has gone in both
directions since the windows opened. Currently there are a few
offshore sportsbooks that have the point spread at Colts minus-5
(BetUS, JustBet), and a few more still that are up to 6 (BoDog), so shop around if you dont want to lose by the hook.
The over/under total has been steady at 48 since the total opened on
the board at most sportsbooks, but there are a few that have moved it
up to 48.5 already, so expect a few more books to follow suit before
kickoff.
From now until they show they can stop it, you can bet your entire
bankroll that teams are going to try and pound the ball on the Colts
just like the Texans did last week.
The Giants certainly are capable of doing it, with Ahmad Bradshaw (76
yards, TD) and Brandon Jacobs combining for 120 yards on 32 carries
against Carolina and both get stronger the more you feed them the ball.
Not only will a strong Giants run game keep Peyton and the Colts off
the field, but also takes pressure off of Eli to outperform his
brother on television. The Giants QB had plenty of good (263 yards, 3
TD) and bad (3 INT) in the opener.
The Colts offense took awhile to get going last weekend and Peyton
was pressured a lot and sacked twice, but with 433 yards and three
touchdowns theres little doubt the Colts and Manning still have one
of the top offenses in the league.
Although the game against the Texans did dictate the play calling
(i.e. behind 13-0, then 27-10), but the Colts cannot be happy with
the 10-to-57 run-to-pass ratio they had last weekend and should try
and run Joseph Addai more to help them control the clock and pace of
the game themselves.
New York should get corner Aaron Ross back from injury in time on Sunday to help out in some nickel and dime situations, but if his
heel is not fully heeled you can bet Peyton will find him on the
field. The addition of safety Antrel Rolle will help the Giants in
this game as well, as Rolle is one of only a few safeties in the
league that can match up with the Colts Dallas Clark man for man.
The Colts defense just needs to find a way to stop the run and force
Eli to win the game, but thats a huge if in my book after watching
Arian Foster carve them up. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney both got
sacks last weekend, but if the Colts cant force third-and-longs it
wont matter how great of a pass rush they can generate.
The Colts won the previous Manning Bowl in 2006, 26-21, but it was
actually Eli that put up more stats (247 yards, 2 TD) even though
Peytons team got the win. The Colts kept stalling out in the red
zone (2-of-5) and needed the leg of Adam Vinatieri to kick four field
goals in the victory.
Vinatieris last field goal, a game-clinching 32-yarder with just
over a minute left, also punched the ticket of anyone who bet on the
Colts at minus-3 before the game. The Colts are just 2-3 ATS against
the Giants dating back to 1990.
The Giants have been road warriors too, going 23-8 ATS in their last 31 roadies for one of the more impressive betting trends for this
contest.
Badgers Pick: Houston did just about everything right against the Colts last week and Peyton was still able to strike for 24 points, so
Im expecting about double of that as the Colts try and save face in
game two. But I dont think the Colts can stop the Giants either, so
my money is on the value here and the over of 48.
