NY Giants(6-3SU,4-4-1ATS) vs.Cincinnati Bengals(3-5SU, 2-5-1ATS)
Where:Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: NYG-4.5/CIN+4.5
Two teams who have played just 6 times since 1985 kick-off their respected second halves. The New York Giants will look to get back on track after losing at home to the PittsburghSteelers24-20 as 3.5-point home chalk. The Giants were out-stattedby 167 yards and have now lost the stats in three straight games. Eli Manning was just 10-of-24 for 125 yardswith one Interception, and theoffense managed just 13 first-downs compared to 22 for Pittsburgh. The Giants five game winning streak came to an abruptend.The Cincinnati Bengals lost 31-23 to the Broncos as 5-point home underdogs last Sunday. Cincinnatiactuallyout-gained the Broncos by 7 yards and had the lead going into the 4thquarter. The defense just could notstop Manning and the passing game, as he threw for 291 yards and three scores. The Bengals are now 5-3 ITS (in the stats), which is pretty good for a team that has only three wins.
I would be shocked ifEli Manning and Andy Dalton both don’tthrow for at least 250 yards and onetouchdownin this game. The Giants haveallowed 24, 24, and 23 points in their last three games, while losing the stats in all three as well. The Bengals have given up 31, 24, and 24 points in their last three games. While both defenses have struggled against the pass, the Bengals have done a better job (239ypg) than thevisitors(264.3ypg). The Bengalswill also bring in the better overall defense by almost 30 yards per contest. The Giants have played four veryphysicalgames in a row without rest and will certainlywelcome its BYE next week.
Last Week, the Giants could not get the passing game going against theSteelersand maybe they should have tried to run the ball more. Eli Manning indicated after the game that the Giants know they haven’t been hitting on all cylinders on the offensive side of the ball. That’s scarybecausethe Giants have scored 143 points in the their last five games, and are4-1 SU in their last five games. Both teams are allowing the same amount of rushing yards (118) per game. When two teams allow over 115 rushing yards per game you would think the Over is cashing. Not really. The Over is 8-9 combined for both teams through the first nine weeks. Make no mistake about it,both these teams want to pass the ball more than they run. The Giantscall about 11 more pass plays than runs and the Bengals call about 10 more pass plays than running plays.
The New York Giants led the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards through the first seven weeks, but have produced only four such plays in the last two games. So what’s the problem? For one, a slump by Eli Manning as he is just not making the rightdecisionslate in games, which has been one his bestattributesthroughout his career. Two, the Giants are facing better passdefenses thanearlierin the season. AllQB’swill struggle at times,but the key is that even when Eli plays sub-par the Giants still win those games. The G-men are a popular bet with the public this week, as they figure the Giants will bounce back after what happened last week in losing to theSteelers. I mentioned before that the Giants have playedfour veryphysicalgames in a row without rest and last week’s game was maybe the mostphysicalof them all. Teams are just 9-17 ATS of lateafter facing theSteelersthe previous week.I really think the Giants are spent and if the Bengals bring their”A” game they can pull off the out-right upset win.
Did you know that Andy Dalton has a higherQBR(86.7) than Eli Manning (85.5) so far this season? If the Bengals get time to throw the ball they will be able to score points, but if Jason Pierre Paul and company cause fits frequently it will be another loss for the home team. The Bengals have allowed 22 sacks compared to just nine for the Giants. This will be be something to keep your eye on during the game.Teams last met in 2008 when the Giants won 26-23 in OT, as 13-point favorites. The posted totalof 42 easily sailed Over the total. The Over is 5-1 in these teams recent history. The average O/U line has been 41.7 points. We have another jacked-up total of 48.5 points and could be 49 by game time.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games in week 10. The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in week 10.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cincinnati Bengals +4.5.
I love home underdogs getting more than 4 pointswith the better defense. That’sbecausethese teams have gone 27-16 ATSon the blind. Add in the fact that the Giants have played 9 straight games with very little rest, and thatthe Bengals are coming off aSU & ATShome loss last week. Take the Bengals and hold your nose that the offensive line holds up.
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