New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday, November 22, 1:00pm
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, Texas
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ-3/HOU+3
Over/Under Total: 40.5
This Sunday at 1:00pm, the New York Jets will fly into NRG Stadium in Houston and take on the Texans. New York comes in at 5-4 overall and the Texans, after a horrible start to the season, are now 4-5 winning two straight and three of their last four games. This past Monday night, Houston pulled off their biggest win of the season taking down the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 10-6, This is a very interesting match up and a game that could easily go either way depending on which teams show up.
The Houston Texans, I thought, would be a decent team that could potentially make a run at an AFC Wild Card spot. A stout defense, a good run game, and a head coach that is a win at all costs guy, I could have seen this team going 9-7 and sneaking into the post season. Well, after yet another Arian Foster injury, a quarterback situation that no NFL team could succeed with, and a defense that was not playing anywhere near its potential. After starting 1-4, the Texans have now won three of their last four games and showing signs of life, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In the last two games, they have held the Titans and Bengals to just six points each. The crazy stat for this team in 2015 is their passing offense. A team that has already had three different guys play quarterback, kicked one of them off the team, and had to sign a new back up is actually ranked 7th in the league in passing. How? That makes no sense. With that said though, their running offense is lacking. Averaging less than 90 yards a game, the Texans find themselves as one of the leagues worst run teams. This makes them have to pass more. There were also a few games this season where the Texans were done by the fourth quarter and the opposing teams backed off allowing Houston pad some stats late. The key to winning this game is to keep up the great defense. If Houston continues this type of defense, I can see them winning a few more games and maybe, yes maybe, making a push for a wild card berth. With the exception of the Patriots game and potentially the Colts, depending on the health of Andrew Luck, most every game left on Houstons schedule is winnable. This will be fun to see how it pans out.
The New York Jets come into this game at 5-4 but are a very distant second place behind the 9-0 Patriots in the AFC East division. The Jets came out in 2015 with some very impressive wins. They started 4-1 but since that start, they have gone 1-3. It is almost as if they are an exact opposite team from the Texans. The defense for New York was stellar early on in the season, but over the last four games in which they won just once, they are giving up over 26 a game to their opponents. The offensive side of the ball has not play too bad though either. The Jets are 12th in the NFL in scoring and Ryan Fitzpatrick has had an okay season passing the ball averaging just under 250 yards a game through the air. This New York Jets team is not bad, at all. They are just another playmaker on offense away from being a pretty dangerous team. I do believe they are still in need of a true franchise quarterback, and when that time comes, and they get onegame on. The key this week is to take advantage of the Houston Texans QB situation. Whoever starts for the Texans whether it be TJ Yates or Brian Hoyer, the Jets need to get after them. If they pressure the QB, I can see mistakes made and an easy win for the Jets.
The sportsbooks were slow to put a line on this game until Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatricks status was confirmed (he is expected to start). The point spread on this game opened with the Jets as a -3 road favorite and the total line at 40.5 points. Neither of these teams have been padding bettors bankrolls with the Jets 4-4-1 against the spread and the Texans 4-5. Recent results do favor Houston with a 3-1 ATS record in their last four and the Jets a putrid 0-3-1.
My early thought was that if Fitzy was starting Id be on the Jets, but while breaking down the numbers my opinion started to waver. The Jets started out the season 4-1 and surprised many with their quick start, but guess what? All five of their games were against clubs with a losing record. On the season as a whole the NYJ have played six games against teams that currently have an under .500 record and came away from those games with a 5-1 SU mark. The other three games this season came against teams with a winning record and they failed miserably in those contests losing all three.
Houston does have a losing record (4-5) on the season, but theyre a hot team, getting three of their four wins this season in their last four games including going into Cincinnati and handing the Bengals their first loss of the season. Their defense has started to play up to their potential with 10 sacks in their last two games and holding Tennessee and Cincinnati to a combined 466 yards in those matches.
We have a team that has lost three of their last four with their lone win coming at home against Jacksonville in a game that they were out-yarded 436-290, laying a field goal on the road against a team that has won three of four.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I LIKE THE HOUSTON TEXANS +3 POINTS!
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